The global economy will grow by 2.7 percent in 2026 - UN report
According to the UN News Service, last year the global economy showed unexpected resilience to the sharp increase in tariffs in the U.S., supported by stable consumer spending and declining inflation, which helped maintain growth rates.
However, there are serious risks: weak investment dynamics and limited budgetary capacities are hindering economic activity.
The report also indicates that a reduction in trade tensions has helped to alleviate disruptions in international trade. However, the impact of high tariffs and increased macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to become more pronounced in 2026. Risks remain significant, especially in sectors related to the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted: “Complex economic, geopolitical, and technological contradictions are shaping a new global context that introduces economic uncertainty. Many developing countries face serious challenges, and as a result, progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals remains out of reach for a significant portion of the world’s population.”
Economic Growth: Stability and Inequality
The forecast for the U.S. economy in 2026 is 2 percent, slightly above the level of 1.9 percent in 2025, thanks to easing both fiscal and monetary policies.
In the European Union, economic growth is expected to be 1.3 percent in 2026, down from 1.5 percent in 2025, influenced by high tariffs from the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which are limiting exports.
For Japan, GDP is projected to increase by 0.9 percent in 2026 compared to 1.2 percent in 2025.
In the post-Soviet space, economic growth will be 2.1 percent in 2026, which is virtually unchanged from 2025, despite the negative impact of military actions in Ukraine on the macroeconomic situation.
In East Asia, growth is expected to be 4.4 percent in 2026, down from 4.9 percent in 2025. In China, GDP will grow by 4.6 percent, which is also lower than the 2025 figure. In South Asia, growth is projected at 5.6 percent, and in India at 6.6 percent, driven by robust consumption and significant government investments.
In Africa, economic growth is forecasted to be 4 percent in 2026, slightly above 3.9 percent in 2025. However, high debt levels and climate change pose significant risks for the region.
The report also notes that global trade, despite the increase in tariffs, demonstrated resilient growth in 2025—by 3.8 percent, exceeding expectations. This is linked to front-loaded shipments at the beginning of the year and growth in the services sector. However, experts expect this growth to slow down: in 2026, it will amount to only 2.2 percent.
Nevertheless, investment growth in most regions remains weak, due to geopolitical tensions and tight fiscal conditions. Monetary easing and targeted fiscal measures have supported investments in some countries, while rapid progress in artificial intelligence has created opportunities for high capital investments in several major markets.
Experts point out that the potential benefits of artificial intelligence, when realized, are likely to be distributed unevenly, which could exacerbate existing structural inequalities.
In conclusion, the report emphasizes that high prices remain a significant global issue, despite the ongoing slowdown in inflation. Overall inflation decreased from 4 percent in 2024 to 3.4 percent in 2025, and it is expected to decline further in 2026—to 3.1 percent. However, high prices continue to impact the real incomes of the population.
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