UN Report: Central Asian Countries to Maintain Steady Economic Growth in 2026

According to a new UN report, economic growth in the post-Soviet countries is expected to be at 2.1% in 2026, slightly lower than the 2.2% level in 2025. The document states that "the slowdown in GDP growth in the region is linked to changes in the economy of the Russian Federation, while many countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia continue to demonstrate positive results, which are expected to persist next year. Limited dependence on the American market minimizes the impact of high US tariffs."

Slowdown in Russia

The Russian economy is projected to grow by 1% in 2026, slightly above the 0.8% in 2025. It is expected that adjustments in monetary policy will positively affect economic activity; however, growth will still be restrained by a lack of labor, a decline in private consumption, and tightening fiscal policy.

The country continues to be under sanctions, primarily concerning oil exports and restrictions on high-tech imports.

Ukraine's GDP: Growth of 2.3%

The economy of Ukraine, as noted in the report, faced serious difficulties in 2025 due to military actions and multiple disruptions in energy infrastructure, negatively impacting production capacities. GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026, compared to 1.5% last year.

Nevertheless, Ukraine's future remains uncertain due to the unstable situation in the conflict and unclear timelines for recovery.

Caucasus and Central Asia: Positive Trends

The effect of trade with the Russian Federation is gradually diminishing for the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Among the factors contributing to positive dynamics are active private consumption, growth in real incomes, declining unemployment, stable remittances, and rapid expansion of household credit.

Additionally, government investments, including infrastructure development projects, have had a significant impact on economic growth.

Acceleration of Inflation

The report notes that inflation has accelerated in a number of CIS countries due to several factors, including rising food prices and increased budget expenditures, as well as specific issues for each country.

Policymakers at the global level are facing a more complex inflationary situation, partly due to climate change. "While monetary policy remains the most important tool against inflation, it should be complemented by reliable fiscal and social measures, as well as policies that strengthen production capacities and supply chains," experts emphasize.

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