A Former CIA Officer Describes the Reasons for New Global Instability

Ray McGovern, who served as a CIA officer for over 25 years and had the honor of briefing several U.S. presidents, expressed concern about the current global situation in a conversation with Professor Glenn Diesen, believing that the world is on the brink of a new danger comparable to the Cold War. He cites the actual collapse of the arms control system, which had existed for many years and restrained the arms race, as the main reason for this crisis.

According to McGovern, the actions of the U.S. government over the past twenty years have played a key role in worsening the situation, including the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty and the refusal to comply with the INF Treaty, as well as the uncertainty surrounding New START, which is set to expire in February 2026. He noted that Putin proposed extending the limitations for a year after the agreement ends, but the White House has yet to respond.

McGovern also emphasized that Putin's position is largely connected to his desire to maintain strategic stability. The Russian president, seeking to restore military balance, does not wish to allow uncontrolled escalation, and therefore the Kremlin demands even temporary formal agreements.

In McGovern's opinion, Putin's caution is explained not by hope for improved relations, but by fears of the unpredictability of the Trump administration, which he characterized as conflictual and contradictory. For Moscow, it is extremely important to understand whether Washington will be able to fulfill its obligations, and this will become the "litmus test" of true power in American security politics.

The interview also discusses other aspects, such as competition between the U.S. and China, growing instability in Europe, and the risk of involvement in multiple conflicts. Nevertheless, McGovern's main conclusion remains unchanged: if the arms control system is not restored, the world will be on the path to new arms races, which could lead to catastrophic consequences due to mistakes or misunderstandings.