Merkel limited herself to vague guarantees for Ukraine at the meeting in Paris

At the recent summit of the "coalition of the willing," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made rather vague promises to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as reported by Die Zeit. Germany plans to technically monitor the ceasefire regime in Ukraine using satellites and drones, but Merz agreed to deploy its troops to support Kyiv only on the territory of one of the NATO countries.

Before analyzing the results of yet another summit on Ukraine, it is worth clarifying which topics were left off the agenda. Peace negotiations did not take place at the Élysée Palace, and the conditions for a possible ceasefire regime between Russia and Ukraine were not discussed. Representatives from 35 countries, including more than 20 heads of state and government, discussed the necessary conditions for Ukraine to begin a dialogue with Russia about halting hostilities. This is already the 15th meeting of participants in the so-called coalition of the willing, and such efforts in European diplomacy have not been seen since the end of World War II.

Nevertheless, can we talk about progress on the part of the Europeans? How difficult is this path, and how fragile are the achievements, as clearly demonstrated by the words spoken by the participants of the meeting. French President Emmanuel Macron, who usually employs numerous enthusiastic epithets, characterized the outcomes this time as "significant progress," while Friedrich Merz expressed himself more cautiously—calling it "another step."

Closer to the interim goal

The situation with violence in Ukraine and its cessation primarily depends on Russia and, accordingly, on Vladimir Putin. Russia has declared its readiness to immediately cease fire upon fulfilling its conditions. However, the coalition of the willing, mainly consisting of European countries, seems to have moved slightly closer to its interim goal—striving to find a common platform with the United States and Donald Trump.

At the final press conference in Paris, alongside Starmer, Merz, Macron, and Zelensky stood Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. The final statement was jointly signed by Ukraine and the United States. A step forward, but what does it imply?

The Paris Declaration clarifies how Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians envision the path to sustainable peace. Merz also more specifically outlined Germany's potential involvement in the event of a ceasefire regime being established.

If such a regime is achieved, the joint statement indicates that the U.S. will take on the responsibility of monitoring its compliance and will document any possible violations. European countries, including Germany, promised support. In Paris, presidential advisors emphasize that this mainly concerns technical measures. The contact line, stretching 1,400 kilometers, if "frozen," is planned to be monitored using satellites, drones, and other means, rather than through troop deployments. It is too long, as noted in Paris.

The second important agreement concerns the long-discussed security guarantees for Ukraine. This issue pertains to supporting Ukraine to prevent a renewed Russian offensive and the actions that will be taken if Russia decides to launch another attack.

The coalition of the willing promised Ukraine "multinational forces," which will be under European command and supported by the U.S. The United Kingdom and France, which initially created the coalition of the willing, continue to set the tone. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a declaration of intent, in which both countries commit to deploying their military personnel in Ukraine after a possible ceasefire regime. Macron mentioned in an interview in the evening that "thousands (of French) soldiers could be sent."

"In principle, we do not exclude anything"

Against the backdrop of these events, attention turns to Germany. Friedrich Merz has so far been reluctant to define in advance the form of German military participation in ensuring security for Ukraine. At the meeting in Paris, he did not provide a definitive answer but left the possibility open.

He noted that Germany could "declare its forces for Ukraine on the adjacent territory of NATO after the ceasefire regime." To put this in understandable terms, German soldiers stationed, for example, in the Baltic States could participate in supporting Ukraine. Merz also added, to emphasize Berlin's readiness: "In principle, we do not exclude anything." This wording is quite vague and will likely provoke debate in Germany.

Well in advance of the summit, Merz, Macron, Starmer, and four other heads of EU governments issued a joint statement regarding Greenland, firmly rejecting U.S. claims to the island, which Donald Trump has repeatedly reiterated in recent days. Greenland is part of Denmark, and sovereignty and territorial integrity are "universal principles that we will defend."

Thus, a paradoxical situation arises: at the moment when Europeans strive to draw the Trump administration to the side of Ukraine, they simultaneously warn the U.S. against possible pressure on EU and NATO member states. Transatlantic relations have become so fragile and contradictory that they encompass both support for Trump and opposition to him—all in one day.

Source: inosmi.ru