China may surpass the USA in landing on a moon of Earth

The lunar race that unfolded in 2026 demonstrates a new state of affairs. The United States is facing technical challenges and budget cuts, while China is confidently moving towards landing taikonauts on the Moon by 2030. This is the first time in decades that American supremacy in space exploration is under threat.

Problems for the USA

NASA has been forced to postpone the landing of astronauts as part of the Artemis III mission to mid-2027. Additionally, the launch of Artemis II, which was supposed to be the first crewed flyby of the Moon in the last 50 years, has been delayed to the period from February to April 2026. The reasons for this include technical failures, including issues with the heat shield and concerns regarding the life support system of the Orion capsule.

SpaceX is also facing serious challenges in developing the lunar module Starship HLS. An important demonstration of in-space refueling has been postponed from 2025 to 2026, and acting NASA administrator Sean Duffy acknowledged that "SpaceX is behind schedule."

At the same time, the Trump administration proposed cutting NASA's budget by 24% and canceling the SLS and Orion programs after the completion of Artemis III. This creates a conflict between ambitious plans and limited financial resources.

China: A Confident and Methodical Approach

Unlike the USA, China demonstrates consistency and stability in its space program. The China National Space Administration has confirmed its intention to land its taikonauts on the Moon by 2030, and all key components, including the Long March 10 rocket, the Mengzhou spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar module, have already been developed.

In August 2025, China successfully conducted ground tests of the Long March 10 rocket, capable of launching up to 70 tons into low orbit. China's strategy involves using two rockets to send the crew and lunar module, which is a simpler and more reliable solution compared to the complex in-space refueling scheme of Starship.

China has already proven its ability to successfully implement space projects: the Chang'e 6 mission in 2024 delivered the first samples from the far side of the Moon. Robotic tests of the lunar module are also planned for 2027-2028.

Contradictions Between Ambitions and Reality

Against the backdrop of these technical difficulties, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Ensuring American Supremacy in Space," which outlines a return to the Moon by 2028 and the deployment of a nuclear reactor on its surface by 2030. The new NASA chief, Jared Isaacman, characterized this plan as "the most significant space policy since Kennedy."

The administration aims to attract $50 billion in investments to the space sector by 2028. However, experts point to serious technical obstacles: the USA still lacks operational nuclear facilities in space, while the USSR launched them back in the 1970s.

Technological Advantage

Despite the existing problems, the USA still maintains a technological advantage in certain areas. Space advocate Vitaly Egorov emphasizes: "NASA has the super-heavy SLS rocket, which has already undergone flight tests, while the Chinese have nothing like it yet." SpaceX has completed 49 stages of the Starship HLS development, demonstrating impressive progress in reusable technologies.

Nevertheless, the Chinese program is characterized by predictability and stable funding. Former NASA director Michael Griffin criticizes the American approach as "technically unrealistic" due to its excessive complexity. NASA is revising the architecture of Artemis III and considering involving Blue Origin as an alternative to SpaceX.

Future Predictions

The year 2026 will be critical for both space programs. SpaceX must demonstrate in-space refueling for Artemis III to take place. China, in turn, plans test flights of the Long March 10 and may get ahead of schedule if the tests are successful.

The most likely scenario is that China will land on the Moon in 2029-2030, ahead of the USA by one to two years. The American program faces contradictions between bold political statements and actual technical capabilities. Even if Artemis II is successful in 2026, it does not guarantee that the landing will occur in 2027.

The outcome of the new lunar race will depend not only on technical capabilities but also on political will and funding stability. In this aspect, China demonstrates significant advantages over the USA, which is still unable to decide between ambitious plans and budget constraints.

Artificial Intelligence Analysis

From the perspective of machine data analysis, the current space race is significantly different from the confrontation between the USSR and the USA in the 1960s. The first race symbolized an ideological confrontation, where space served as a demonstration of system superiority. Today, the stakes are much higher — control over lunar resources could determine the future of humanity's energy for centuries to come. Helium-3, rare earth metals, and water ice transform the Moon from a symbolic prize into a strategically important asset worth trillions of dollars.

Analysis of historical trends reveals an interesting pattern: countries with developed space programs often fail in races due to overconfidence and bureaucracy. The USA underestimated Soviet capabilities in the late 1950s, viewing the first satellites as "propaganda stunts." China's model, based on "one party - one decision," may prove more effective for long-term space projects compared to the American system, where priorities change every four years. Perhaps the real intrigue lies not in who will be first on the Moon, but in who will manage to create a sustainable lunar infrastructure?

Source: hashtelegraph.com