Forecast for 2026. How prices will rise and what will become more expensive the most

The year 2025 has been challenging for the residents of Kyrgyzstan, who are anxiously watching their finances. Price increases have outpaced income, and unfortunately, experts warn that the situation will remain difficult in 2026.

Kaktus.media spoke with experts to find out how prices will change and what will influence this.

A New Wave of Inflation?

According to estimates from the Ministry of Finance of Kyrgyzstan, inflation is expected to rise from 5.5% in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026. In the absence of shock situations, prices will increase at a moderate pace.

The National Bank, in its latest report, did not provide specific data on upcoming inflation, only noting the continued influence of current inflationary factors in the future.

The NB KR states: "Inflation is expected to be under pressure due to increased domestic demand, fiscal policy, and rising prices for food and petroleum products in the region."

The EDB forecasts that inflation will stabilize by 2028; however, rising utility tariffs and excise taxes may slow this process. Predictions indicate inflation of 7.4% by the end of 2027 and 6.2% by 2028.

Causes of Inflation

The World Bank suggests that inflation in 2025 will exceed 9%, and in 2026 it will reach 11%. Economists explain this by several factors.

Senior economist at the World Bank, Bakyt Dubashov, asserts: "Rising wages, as well as increases in electricity and heating tariffs, will lead to inflation. However, we hope that there will not be significant global shocks in food and energy markets."

Goods That Will Become More Expensive

Russia, being Kyrgyzstan's main trading partner, has a significant impact on prices in the country. Next year, an increase in the prices of goods from Russia is expected. The main reason for this is the increase in VAT from 20% to 22% in Russia starting January 1, 2026, as well as a reduction in the revenue threshold for small businesses to 20 million rubles.

Which products, according to experts, will rise the most in price? They highlight several categories:

• Coffee and confectionery (expected price increase of 18-22%).
• Meat and dairy products will become more expensive by 12-15%, as the preferential VAT will not be able to offset the rising prices of fuel and feed.
• Some beverages will also increase in price due to the rise in VAT and the costs of packaging and logistics.
• Dairy products will rise in price due to the increased costs of feed and energy resources and packaging.

Shrinkflation is also possible, where the volume of products decreases while the price remains the same (for example, chocolate may weigh 70 grams instead of 80). Prices for fresh vegetables and fruits will also depend on the season and harvest, and are likely to continue rising.

However, there is also positive news. A decrease in global prices for vegetable oil is expected, as major importers like India and Turkey are reducing purchases. This is due to increased supply following a good harvest in Russia.

Futures quotes indicate that the decline could be around 5% by the summer of 2026. Managing Director of "Rexoft Consulting," Dmitry Krasnov, predicts a drop of 5-10% in the next six months.

Rising Prices for Electronics

In the second half of 2025, there is an increase in prices for SSD drives and RAM for PCs. This is due to manufacturers redirecting their capacities to produce more profitable memory for data centers.

Thus, almost all segments of technology and gadgets are experiencing price pressure:

• RAM for PCs and laptops;
• SSD drives;
• Laptops and smartphones, where memory chips and drives are key components affecting the cost.

Starting September 1, 2026, a new technological fee on ready-made imported electronics will be introduced in Russia, which will also affect prices in Kyrgyzstan. An increase in electronics prices from 5-6% to 15-20% in Russia is expected, which may also impact Kyrgyzstan.

Fuel Prices

According to the latest data from the World Bank, a decline in global commodity prices is expected to levels not seen in the last six years, indicating a drop in prices for four consecutive years.

The chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank, Yevgeny Vinokurov, stated that "a decrease in oil prices is forecasted for 2026-2027 against the backdrop of rising supply and the development of alternative energy sources, with the average annual price of Brent expected to be around $66 per barrel."

However, as 2025 has shown, not everything depends on global prices. Supply issues can lead to price increases. For example, according to Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of the trader "Proleum," unscheduled shutdowns of oil refineries in Russia have become one of the reasons for the rise in fuel prices. In Kyrgyzstan, the price of AI-92 gasoline rose by 17.5%, AI-95 by 12%, and diesel fuel by 11.5% over the past year.

In 2026, a continued rise in gasoline prices is expected in Russia, especially for AI-95, which may lead to uncertain dynamics due to sanctions and economic challenges.