So far, nothing critical: Expert on the situation in the Toktogul Reservoir

An analyst and ecologist, Baktybek Saipbaev, emphasized in an interview with IA "Kabar" that the current water levels in the Toktogul hydroelectric power station do not pose an immediate threat for the winter season. However, he also pointed out concerning trends that could lead to a systemic crisis in Central Asia in the future.
“The decrease in water levels in the Toktogul reservoir is a natural process, considering that we have been facing low water levels for several years. During this time, there is an increase in electricity consumption, which complicates the balancing of the water-energy balance. Additionally, we must consider our obligations to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan regarding water releases during the growing season and for irrigating agricultural lands in the summer,” he noted.
At present, the situation is not critical, and the water level in the reservoir is sufficiently high to ensure the winter period. However, if low water levels continue, it could lead to serious problems. According to forecasts from international experts, Central Asia may enter a prolonged period of dry weather.
“We need to minimize water releases from the Toktogul hydroelectric power station during the winter period. Small-scale energy cannot solve all our problems, especially in winter when its potential is limited. Solar power plants are ineffective in fog, and wind farms depend on weather conditions,” he added.
In Saipbaev's opinion, the construction of a powerful thermal power station near the Karakete coal deposit is a wise step. “I hope it will help bridge the gap between growing electricity consumption and our production capacity. However, even if we address the deficit in the next few years, we will not be able to ensure significant energy reserves necessary to support economic growth,” the expert emphasized.
“I believe it is time to revive and update projects in the field of hydrogen and nuclear energy. These sources are not influenced by external factors, can generate significant power, and will allow for more rational use of the resources of the Toktogul reservoir during the winter period,” he added.
Saipbaev also reminded about the Kambar-Ata – 1 hydroelectric power station project, where construction work is already underway. However, the implementation of this project may take up to ten years, and in his opinion, we may not have that much time,” concluded Baktybek Saipbaev.