The expert emphasized that this opinion was formed based on the results of a meeting held at the KAZENERGY Association, where issues of the fuel market were discussed with the participation of representatives from the Ministry of Energy, KazMunayGas, the Agency for Regulation of Natural Monopolies, gas stations, and industry specialists, as reported by Azh.kz.
Baidildinov noted that the previously introduced moratorium on price increases played a stabilizing role, but led to increased losses among oil-producing companies and gas stations.
Currently, gas stations are incurring losses of about 5–7 tenge for every liter of fuel sold.
In addition, recently there has been a significant increase in costs for:
- railway transportation — by 72%;
- fuel storage — by 44%;
- electricity — by 42%;
- fuel delivery — by 21%.
According to him, wholesale prices for petroleum products have increased by approximately 17%, while retail prices have risen by 16%.
The economist also pointed out the existing imbalance in prices for different types of fuel. For example, the average price of AI-92 gasoline in Kazakhstan is 235 tenge per liter, while AI-95 costs about 320 tenge. The price difference reaches 36%, which is significantly higher than in Russia and the Persian Gulf countries.
"Thus, consumers purchasing more expensive fuel are effectively subsidizing those who fill up with AI-92," he added.
Baidildinov outlined three possible scenarios for the development of the situation:
- Extension of the moratorium until the end of summer;
- Reduction of wholesale oil prices;
- Liberalization of retail fuel prices.
At the same time, the expert noted that an increase in prices by 10 tenge would only help cover current losses but would not solve the problem of rising costs and tariffs.
In his opinion, the old model of price control for fuel in Kazakhstan has exhausted itself, and the domestic market continues to be supported by supplies from Russia.
"The domestic market still balances thanks to supplies from Russia, and the deficit is growing. The expansion of the Shymkent oil refinery or the construction of a new fourth refinery is not anticipated, as Kazakhstan simply does not have the necessary volume of oil (either high world prices must prevail, or TSO/KPO/NCOC must start supplying to the domestic market)," he concluded.
