Gasoline prices are rapidly rising worldwide, including in Russia, where there is an increase in both stock quotes and prices at gas stations. The price of oil consistently exceeds $100 per barrel, putting pressure on the fuel market. Since the beginning of March 2026, the price of AI-95 at the St. Petersburg exchange has increased by 13% and reached 70,345 rubles per ton. According to Rosstat, the average price of a liter of gasoline in Russia is 68.18 rubles, while in Moscow this figure fluctuates around 69 rubles, and in some cases exceeds 71 rubles.
Reasons for the rise in gasoline prices in Russia
Despite the fact that oil and gasoline are produced domestically, prices continue to rise. According to Evgeny Sumarokov, a candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the dynamics of prices at Russian gas stations do not depend on world oil prices, as Russia is one of the largest exporters, accounting for about 17% of global supplies.
At some gas stations in Moscow, fuel prices are already above 71 rubles per liter. Photo: 1MI
However, fuel shortages may arise in Russia due to rising world prices, as noted by the press service of the Autodom Group. Oil refineries (refineries) are currently benefiting from exports, as high world oil prices make exports more profitable, which can lead to shortages in the domestic market.
The government is implementing a fuel damping mechanism: subsidies are paid to oil companies to prevent price increases in the domestic market. However, as noted by Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company, this mechanism does not always work properly.
— Ideally, the damper should eliminate the question of where to sell fuel. But in practice, due to market inefficiencies, export can be more profitable during certain periods.
In addition, according to reports from the Ministry of Finance, in February 2026, oil companies not only did not receive subsidies but also paid the government 18.8 billion rubles. This means that domestic gasoline prices were higher than those in foreign markets, allowing oil companies to raise prices for consumers.
Russian oil companies benefit from high fuel prices domestically. Photo: 1MI
Forecasts for gasoline prices in Russia
Nevertheless, ordinary motorists and transport companies are primarily interested in prices at gas stations. Authorities assure that there is no gasoline shortage in the country. According to Anton Rubtsov, director of the oil and gas complex department at the Ministry of Energy, gasoline reserves amount to 2 million tons, and diesel fuel reserves are 3.3 million tons, which exceeds the level of reserves in March 2025.
Dmitry Skryabin also believes that there will be no sharp changes in the fuel market. If necessary, the authorities will intervene.
— Prices are expected to continue to rise, but will not exceed the inflation rate. At the same time, stock quotes are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal demand and planned refinery repairs.
The Ministry of Energy recently allowed producers to export fuel but is already considering the possibility of introducing new restrictions, as noted by Anton Rubtsov.
— The issue of banning exports is not acute, but the government may make a decision if necessary. They have all the tools for prompt response.
Experts predict that gasoline prices will reach 73 rubles per liter by summer. Photo: 1MI
Given the current situation in the market, price fluctuations are possible. The forecasts of the Autodom Group indicate that by mid-2026, significant increases in gasoline prices can be expected.
— As of today, the average price of a liter of AI-95 gasoline is 67.65 rubles (+10.94% over the year). By the end of 2026, the price could reach 69–70 rubles, and by summer — 70–73 rubles, with a potential peak of up to 76 rubles in regions in case of shortages or accidents at refineries. Price increases are expected to extend into the fall.
Many users in the comments to the materials of "NI" expressed skepticism about the stabilization of gasoline prices, predicting only their increase. Readers also noted that the cost of a liter of gasoline in Russia always tends to one dollar at the current exchange rate.
