Causes of the Protests
The primary factor that triggered the protests was the sharp deterioration of the economic situation. The exchange rate of the Iranian rial fell to a record level—over 1.4 million rials per US dollar by the end of December 2025 (compared to 700,000 a year earlier). This collapsed the purchasing power of citizens and provoked a rise in inflation, which, according to official data, reached around 40%, while food prices increased by 72% compared to the previous year. Significant factors exacerbating the crisis include:- Financial Crisis. The devaluation of the rial led to the resignation of the head of the Central Bank of Iran on December 29, negatively affecting the prices of imported goods and citizens' savings.
- Impact of War and Sanctions. In June 2025, Iran entered a 12-day conflict with Israel, which damaged infrastructure. In September 2025, the UN reinstated strict sanctions against Iran, further isolating the country's economy.
- Increase in Fuel Prices. In December, the government reduced fuel subsidies and introduced a new distribution system, effectively raising gasoline prices and creating an additional burden for families.
- Long-term Problems. These include drought, high unemployment, corruption, and ineffective governance, which also fuel discontent among citizens. Many Iranians blame the authorities for poor economic policies and the suppression of freedoms.
Development of the Protests
Events unfolded rapidly, and protests spread to the streets of Tehran and other cities. By December 29, demonstrations had reached major cities such as Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad. The police attempted to disperse the crowds using tear gas, but this only strengthened the protesters' resolve. Initially, the protests were economic in nature, with demands to lower prices and stabilize the currency. Taxi drivers complained about a sharp rise in food prices by six to ten times over the year and called on the authorities to control prices for essential goods.However, the protests soon took on a political character. Anti-government slogans began to resonate in the crowd, directed against the entire system of the Islamic Republic. The rebels expressed discontent that had been building for years, demanding a change of power and chanting "Death to the dictator!" Some protesters openly displayed nostalgia for the monarchy, waving flags from the Shah's era and supporting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, who is in exile. Although Pahlavi himself called for a referendum on the form of government, his name became a symbol of the protest against the spiritual leadership.
The protests had a spontaneous and heterogeneous nature, encompassing a wide range of participants: from the urban lower and middle classes to students and women. Strikes occurred at some universities, and by January 7, protests had spread to at least 45 higher education institutions. Merchants in various cities also began strikes, paralyzing commercial life.
Increase in Repression
As the protests expanded, the Iranian authorities began to resort to brutal measures of suppression. On January 3, 2026, spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei labeled the protesters as "rebels," stating that they needed to be "put in their place." On the same day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Lorestan province announced the end of the "period of tolerance" and threatened harsh measures against the organizers. On January 5, the head of the judiciary ordered strict punishment for the detainees and expedited their cases.Security forces launched operations to disperse demonstrations, using batons, tear gas, water cannons, and firearms. Human rights defenders, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, documented instances where security forces opened fire on peaceful protesters, resulting in casualties. In the first week of clashes, at least 28 people were killed in 13 cities.
Particularly severe repression was observed in Kurdish provinces, such as Lorestan and Ilam, where reports indicated dozens of fatalities. In the city of Azna on January 1, the IRGC opened fire on unarmed protesters, killing six people. Similar incidents occurred elsewhere, showing that the authorities were not willing to concede.
On January 8-9, the protest movement reached its peak. Opposition leaders in exile, including Reza Pahlavi, called for mass demonstrations. In response, the authorities shut down mobile internet and communication, and by January 10, the country experienced a total internet blackout. Nevertheless, protesters found ways to share information, using the Starlink satellite network and uploading videos through vulnerable communication points.
Despite the blockade, the world learned about the scale of the protests. On the night of January 10, thousands of people took to the streets of Tehran, chanting "Death to Khamenei!" and "Long live the Shah!" In Mashhad, protesters burned the flag of the Islamic Republic. According to the opposition organization HRANA, protests spread to over 570 settlements.
The authorities' response became increasingly brutal, and reports of snipers shooting at people began to emerge from Tehran. Many protesters reported a high number of casualties, stating that "hundreds of bodies lie in the streets."
Medical personnel reported injuries consistent with the use of firearms. Human rights defenders noted that the tactics of suppressing the protests were "unprecedented in their brutality," surpassing even the repressions of 2022. Despite mass arrests (over 18,000 detained by mid-January) and fear of reprisals, the protests continued.
Outcomes of the Suppression
In the second week of January, the Iranian authorities announced that the protests were subsiding and would soon be completely suppressed. On January 12, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed diplomats about the complete control of security forces over the situation. State television began broadcasting pro-government rallies as evidence of support for the regime. At the same time, the authorities launched an information campaign, blaming external enemies for the violence.Araghchi stated that the protests had "become bloody" and that foreign intelligence services allegedly supported the rebels. The Ministry of Interior reported the restoration of order, claiming that open demonstrations had ceased. By mid-January, protest actions had virtually disappeared, and daily life in Tehran returned to normal. However, the internet remained blocked, complicating information verification.
The exact casualty figures remain unknown, as the authorities do not publish complete reports. However, on January 13, Reuters reported 2,000 dead, including security personnel, which drew criticism for cynicism. The human rights group HRANA reported 3,090 dead protesters by January 17. Some sources claim that the actual number of fatalities may exceed 12,000, based on video recordings from morgues.
Additionally, tens of thousands of Iranians were injured and persecuted. Human rights defenders documented mass injuries, many are in prisons where they are subjected to cruel treatment. Amnesty International reports that the authorities are pressuring the families of the deceased to make false statements about the causes of death. State media broadcast edited "confessions" of detainees, raising further concerns.
The Iranian authorities intend to severely punish the organizers of the protests. After the suppression of the demonstrations, calls for the death penalty for the detainees were heard in mosques. Influential cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, in a Friday sermon, called for executions, labeling the protesters as "enemies of Allah" and threatening retribution against U.S. President Donald Trump.
