The credit gap represents the deviation of the actual credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend, as defined by the EFSD methodology.
From 2008 to 2025, three episodes of credit gap were identified in Kyrgyzstan.
“The first episode, which spans from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2016, arose from a sharp increase in lending rates in early 2014, and was subsequently exacerbated by currency stress.
This stress, in turn, was caused by external factors, primarily the significant devaluation of the Russian ruble at the end of 2014, which put pressure on the exchange rate of the Kyrgyz som,” the authors of the study comment.
