The credit gap, as defined by the authors of the study, is the difference between the actual credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend.
This indicator is an important tool for analyzing the current stage of the credit cycle, as well as for identifying periods of abnormal credit growth and assessing deviations of the financial system from its stable state.
Within the framework of the study, three main periods of credit gap in the economy of Kyrgyzstan were identified for the period from 2008 to 2025:
- 2014-2016 — this period was caused by a sharp increase in the pace of lending at the beginning of 2014, and then complicated by stress in the currency market;
- 2020-2022 — is a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which extensive support measures for businesses and the population were implemented;
- from 2024 to the present — continues against the backdrop of a persistently high level of lending.
