In contrast, oil imports from Russia to India have decreased to about 1.2 million barrels per day, which is 40% lower compared to peak levels in June 2025.
The increase in supplies to China has encompassed all major grades of oil from Russia. Notably, the number of tankers carrying Urals oil departing from Baltic and Black Sea ports has significantly increased, as have Arctic supplies. Chinese companies, in particular, have taken advantage of substantial discounts: the price of Urals for China reached a discount of up to $12 per barrel compared to Brent prices.
Senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, Jun Go, noted that "China is currently receiving a huge incentive to purchase Russian oil, acting as the buyer of last resort for oil 'ballast'."
However, the reorientation of supplies creates certain logistical challenges. The distance from Russian Baltic ports to Shandong province in China is about 23,300 km, while to the Indian port of Jamnagar it is 14,200 km. Long routes and delays for tankers, which sometimes remain anchored off the coast of Oman, in the Suez Gulf, and near Singapore, have resulted in the volume of oil "on the water" rising to approximately 140 million barrels, which is more than 60% above the level at the end of August 2025.
As highlighted in the Bloomberg report, the shift in flows began in August 2025, when India started to reduce its purchases under pressure from the United States. In response, Russia offered Urals oil to Chinese clients at a discount, attracting both private companies and state-owned refineries in China, despite their previous loyalty to ESPO oil from the Far East.
