In 2025, 645,000 children were born in France, while the number of deaths reached 651,000, resulting in a natural decrease of 6,000. This decline has been observed for several years: in 2020, there was an increase of +66,300, and in 2024, +17,600.
Experts emphasize that such a crossover of birth and death rates is a rare event. Apart from the two world wars, such instances have been recorded only three times: in 1907, 1911, and 1929, and they were brief occurrences.
Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social research department at Insee, noted that this trend may continue in the future. She explained that since the 2010s, there has been an increase in mortality, which is likely to continue until 2040-2050 due to the aging of generations born during the baby boom.
In 2025, the number of deaths increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year. According to the report, the main factors contributing to this increase were not only the aging population but also external circumstances, such as a severe winter flu epidemic and high summer temperatures.
It is estimated that by the end of the 2040s, the annual number of deaths could reach around 800,000.
Against the backdrop of increasing deaths in France, there is also a decline in birth rates. Since 2010, when 832,394 children were born in the country, this figure has been steadily decreasing, and in recent years, the rate of decline has accelerated.
The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2025 was 1.56 children per woman—one of the lowest values in a long time. Insee indicates that comparable figures were observed only during World War I.
The National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined) also notes a decrease in the desire among young people under 30 to have children: over the past 20 years, the average desired number of children has decreased by 0.6. Additionally, there is a growing number of those who want to have zero or one child, which exceeds the number of those wishing to have three or more.
Among the reasons for this phenomenon, researchers highlight economic instability and new sources of anxiety, including climate change and uncertainty about the future.
Despite the negative natural growth, France's population continues to grow due to migration. Sylvie Le Minez noted that while natural growth was previously the main factor in population growth, migration balance has now become decisive.
In 2020, the migration balance was 140,000, and in 2025 it increased to 176,000 people, allowing the population to grow by 0.25% despite declining birth rates and rising mortality.
The expert added that young people are the most common migrants to France, and migration remains a key factor supporting both the economy and the demographics of the country.
