In the context of chronic energy shortages and increasing pressure on the budget, Kyrgyzstan is opting for one of the most controversial energy projects in its history — the construction of a solar power plant (SPP) with a capacity of 1900 MW in partnership with the Vietnamese company ROX Group. This project is positioned as a breakthrough in the field of "green" energy; however, its implementation is burdened with numerous financial, technical, legal, and reputational risks, which could lead not only to the failure of the specific facility but also to a systemic crisis in the country's energy sector. Analysis shows that behind the attractive facade of "renewable" modernization lies a potential threat — a partnership that benefits only lobbyists while harming national interests.
Financial Instability
ROX Group exhibits signs of serious financial instability. Open data indicates that its debt load exceeds its equity by more than seven times, and by some estimates, up to eleven times. For international investors, such a level of debt is a troubling signal, indicating a high probability of default and a low ability to service obligations without external support. The company already has restructured and overdue bond payments, which is a clear sign of a liquidity crisis within the company.
Under these conditions, ROX Group will be unable to attract project financing from major banks or international funds unless Kyrgyzstan provides extraterritorial guarantees. This means that the state, already burdened with external debt in the energy sector, will be forced to assume the risks of a private investor. Instead of attracting private investments, the country is encumbered with new debt obligations under the guise of "green" development. A recent example is the breakdown of the under-construction solar stations at Issyk-Kul, which some sources link to the Vietnamese investor.
Legal Risks
No less alarming is the legal background of the company. The only registered experience of ROX Group in solar energy is the Thuan Nam 19 project (60 MW) in Vietnam, which is under investigation. Reports from Vietnamese media on April 10, 2025, inform of a criminal case being opened regarding corruption and bribery during the implementation of this project.
For the Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan, this creates a double risk. First, cooperation with a company under anti-corruption investigation undermines trust in the investor selection process and may be perceived as lobbying. Second, if the investigation ends with a guilty verdict, the assets of ROX Group may be frozen, and its participation in international projects limited. Kyrgyzstan will find itself embroiled in lengthy legal disputes, paralyzing the project's implementation and jeopardizing state guarantees.
Technological Issues
The 1900 MW SPP project is incompatible with the current conditions of Kyrgyzstan's energy system, which has historically focused on hydropower generation and is characterized as "weak," outdated, and unprepared for the integration of large volumes of variable generation. The introduction of such a volume of "intermittent" solar energy without large-scale investments in storage systems and substation modernization could lead to cascading failures, equipment damage, and accidents.
ROX Group lacks experience in projects of such scale and complexity. Its only similar project — a 60 MW station — is not a relevant precedent. Moreover, considering that the Ministry of Energy has already made mistakes in the documentation during the tender for the Kara-Kechinskaya TPP, hopes for effective control over the technological process of the Vietnamese contractor appear naive. The risk of poor execution and the use of low-quality equipment is particularly high, given the company's financial situation.
Alternative Solutions
Against the backdrop of the risks associated with the ROX Group project, alternative solutions such as small modular reactors (SMRs) stand out. Unlike SPPs, SMRs provide stable base load 24/7, are not dependent on weather conditions or time of day, and can be easily integrated into existing infrastructure. The lifespan of such reactors is over 60 years, while solar panels only last 20-25 years. Typically, SMR projects are implemented by state corporations with high credit ratings, which guarantees their completion and reduces risks for the host country.
Choosing ROX Group ignores Kyrgyzstan's key problem — energy shortages in winter and during transitional seasons when solar generation is minimal. A 1900 MW SPP will not solve this problem but will only create an illusion of development. Meanwhile, SMRs could become the foundation for energy independence, providing stable generation during peak demand periods.
Image of "Green" Initiatives
The failure of the project with ROX Group will not only hit the budget but also the entire "green" agenda of Kyrgyzstan. International partners supporting the development of renewable energy sources may reconsider their involvement, seeing the country as an unreliable partner. The public will begin to perceive any "green" initiatives as potential sources of corruption and inefficiency.
It is dangerous that this project is being promoted under the auspices of the Ministry of Energy, whose reputation has already suffered due to a number of controversial decisions — from "unlimited tariffs" for certain groups to errors in tenders. The choice of ROX Group seems not to be the result of a techno-economic analysis but rather a consequence of lobbying influence, possibly from circles associated with Vietnamese business.
The winter of 2025-2026 will be a decisive moment. If the project with ROX Group is not reconsidered, Kyrgyzstan risks being left not only without a new source of generation but also with new debts, legal disputes, and a tarnished reputation. Instead of achieving energy independence, the country may find itself dependent on an unscrupulous investor, deepening the systemic crisis.
