Since the beginning of 2026, the world has faced the threat of a global war. How could this affect Kyrgyzstan in the event of a worsening situation? Andrey Belov, a logistics expert, shared his opinion with VB.KG, pointing out that the main confrontation is taking place in the Middle East. The expert emphasizes the need for a deep analysis of the logistical consequences of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz, both for Kyrgyzstan and for Central Asia.
According to Belov, Iran currently plays a central role in delivering European goods to Kyrgyzstan via the port of Bandar Abbas. Additionally, all trade with Turkey also passes through Iranian territory. Although these cargo flows do not constitute a critical share of the country's exports and imports, any problems with cargo transportation through Iran could destabilize the existing logistics system.
In the current tense situation, special attention should be paid to the Caspian routes (port of Turkmenbashi – port of Alyat – port of Turkmenbashi). However, Belov warns that the decision to expand these routes depends on the capacity of the ports and the condition of the Caspian cargo fleet, which in turn affects the quality and cost of maritime transportation.
The specialist predicts a significant transformation of the rules for road freight transportation between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Kazakhstan and Russia. In this regard, there is a need for stricter security measures, including control of cargo contents and compliance with sanctions, as well as military escort for convoys to prevent capture or destruction.
“Those who believe that Kyrgyzstan is not susceptible to threats should pay attention to the fact that since the beginning of 2026, more than 15 vessels have been detained in the world's oceans, cargoes have been confiscated, and crews have been arrested without any legal grounds. I would also remind you of cases of small vessels being destroyed in the Caribbean under the pretext of a threat to U.S. national security, which shows that the risk of destruction of cargo vehicles for similar reasons is no longer a fantasy,” Belov warns.
Today, modern military operations are often conducted using unmanned aerial vehicles. These new threats will be taken into account when organizing cargo transportation along the Silk Road in 2026. Belov highlights two main approaches to ensuring security: the use of electronic navigation seals for precise tracking and the creation of militarized escort groups (convoys) involving special forces.
As an example, he mentions the situation in the Red Sea, where the actions of the Houthis have led to an increase in insurance premiums for carriers to 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, forcing many to reroute their paths around Africa.
“We are on the verge of making quick and responsible decisions, especially regarding the security of cargo transportation along the Silk Road. All changes occurring in our country are also related to events in the Middle East. Judging by the latest news, an active period of actions is expected in early March,” Belov concluded in a conversation with VB.KG.
