Since the beginning of 2026, the international situation has become tense, and many countries are on the brink of conflict. Logistics expert Dmitry Belov shared his thoughts in an interview with VB.KG about the potential consequences this may have for Kyrgyzstan, especially in light of the possible escalation of the situation in the Middle East.
According to Belov, a key element of logistics for Kyrgyzstan is Iranian territory, which serves as an important transit route for European imports arriving via the port of Bandar Abbas. Additionally, all trade with Turkey also passes through Iran. Although the share of these goods is insignificant in the overall volume of the country's foreign economic activity, any difficulties in cargo transportation through Iran could cause serious problems in the logistics chain.
In the current conditions, special attention should be paid to Caspian routes, such as the port of Turkmenbashi and the port of Alyat. However, Belov notes that the efficiency of these routes depends on the state of the ports and the technical characteristics of the Caspian cargo fleet. The aging of vessels negatively affects the quality and cost of maritime transportation.
According to the expert's forecasts, a radical change in the rules of road freight transportation between Kyrgyzstan and neighboring countries such as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia is expected. Increased security measures will become a necessity: from cargo control to militarized escorts to protect against possible attacks.
Belov also reminded that in the first one and a half months of 2026, more than 15 vessels were detained in international waters, and cargoes were confiscated. Crews were detained without sufficient grounds, raising serious questions about maritime security. Incidents such as the destruction of small vessels in the Caribbean under the pretext of national security threats show that such occurrences no longer seem like fiction.
In the current conditions of hostilities, unmanned systems are becoming commonplace, and these threats must be taken into account when organizing transportation along the Silk Road in 2026. Belov highlights two main tools for ensuring security: electronic navigation seals for tracking cargo and militarized escort groups.
As an example, he cites the situation in the Red Sea, where due to the actions of the Houthis, insurance premiums for carriers reached 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, leading to a significant reorientation of cargo flows.
“It is necessary to make responsible and swift decisions, especially regarding the security of cargo transportation along the Silk Road. All changes occurring in the country are also related to events in the Middle East. Judging by the latest news, an escalation of actions is expected in early March,” concluded Dmitry Belov in a conversation with VB.KG.
