In Kyrgyzstan, a discussion has intensified among politicians and experts regarding the timing of the presidential elections. Some believe that the current head of state should complete their term, while others advocate for early elections, presenting various arguments. However, some opponents, in their attempts to justify their point of view, sometimes get tangled in legal aspects.
Klara Sooronkulova, a former judge of the Constitutional Court, notes: "The presidential elections of 2021 were held under the old rules. The new version of the Constitution was approved on April 11, 2021, and in my opinion, it would be necessary to hold the elections again, as the powers of the president have changed. We should not wait for the term to end to hold early elections."
Felix Kulov explains: "The constitutional law clearly states that presidential elections take place on the third Sunday of October in the year when the president's term ends. Sadyr Japarov's term is six years, starting from January 2021, so it will end in January 2027. We must rely on this date. As long as the president is fulfilling his duties, announcing early elections is inappropriate."
This raises the question: should we wait for the end of the term? Which Constitution should we rely on – the old or the new? From the moment Sooronbay Jeenbekov resigned, or from the date the new Constitution was adopted by the Jogorku Kenesh at Japarov's proposal? From January or April 2021?..
It can be unequivocally agreed with Felix Sharshenbaevich: if the president is consistently fulfilling his duties, has no remarks, feels well, and does not intend to leave office, then there is no need for early elections.
On one hand, a documentary film titled "President" has been released, summarizing Sadyr Japarov's five-year term and becoming part of a large PR campaign that creates a sense of the elections being near. The information service of the presidential administration has prepared one hundred photographs reflecting Japarov's activities from January 2025 to the present, timed to coincide with the five-year anniversary of his assumption of office. Informally, these materials are intended to prepare public opinion for the upcoming voting.
Political experts, both local and foreign, are actively analyzing the achievements of the current president and his future plans, raising questions about the upcoming elections at various levels.
On the other hand, the so-called info-gypsies have become active, offering "critical" materials, which also indicates their premonition of a "great shake-up."
Who will be the candidate for the elections (if we abstract from the timing issues)? "Who will we make president?" - asked the head of the State National Security Committee, Kamchybek Tashiev, in 2024. "Maybe we will bring back Almazbek Atambayev? We've seen all this before."
Atambayev would certainly like to return, but legal circumstances do not allow it. Although many continue to associate certain hopes with his name, another Atambayev, for example, Seyidbek Almazbekovich, could emerge as a candidate.
What else can the opposition offer? This is a question we will be able to answer later. Who today can pose serious competition to Sadyr Japarov? His five-year term is associated with economic growth, political reforms, and significant foreign policy decisions. Japarov and Tashiev successfully resolved border conflicts with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Thanks to Japarov, the nationalization of "Kumtor" took place, as well as important constitutional changes that established a presidential model of governance. It is very important that the president bears full responsibility for all decisions, and now it is up to him to decide when to hold elections.
However, from the perspective of state interests, early elections may be more expedient.
The fall of 2023 promises to be eventful for Kyrgyzstan. The republic will take on the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and will prepare for a major summit, which requires significant efforts in coordinating positions and ensuring security. At the same time, the World Nomad Games will take place, demanding enormous concentration of resources.
According to the plan, the presidential elections are to be held on January 24, 2027, immediately after these events, which may create additional pressure on the budget. Moreover, winter elections are often associated with risks of low voter turnout due to weather conditions and possible social discontent due to power outages.
The key point is the political strategy. Early elections will not give the fragmented opposition time to consolidate and form a united front. Given the strength of the current government, it makes sense for Sadyr Japarov to announce early elections now, holding them in the spring or early summer, which will allow the country to enter the fall period with a renewed mandate of trust and focus on international projects.
Japarov, let us remind you, has the opportunity to hold his position for 11 years (five plus six). Five years have already passed, and according to the new Constitution, he has every right to decide when to hold the next elections. A commitment to a pragmatic approach may be a key factor in his decision.
Thus, the question of whether the elections will take place on time or early is not so much about legality as it is about effectiveness. The decision will be made by Sadyr Japarov in a working manner.
