According to information from the BBC, India may soon become an example of weight loss — at least theoretically.
This Friday, the patent on semaglutide — the key molecule on which the well-known weight control drugs Wegovy and Ozempic are based — will expire. These drugs are produced by the Danish company Novo Nordisk.
After the patent expires, local pharmaceutical companies will be able to start producing more affordable analogs, which, in turn, should lead to increased competition and a reduction in drug prices, possibly by more than half. This will significantly expand the availability of medications for the Indian population and, potentially, for other countries.
The investment bank Jefferies characterized this event as a potential "magic pill moment" for India, predicting that the semaglutide market could reach $1 billion with the right pricing strategy.
It is expected that around 50 semaglutide generics will enter the market in the coming months, which is typical in the context of active competition in India's pharmaceutical industry. For example, after the patent expiration of the diabetes drug sitagliptin in 2022, around 30 analogs appeared on the market within a month, and by the end of the year, their number reached nearly 100.
The Indian pharmaceutical sector, currently valued at about $60 billion, is projected to double by 2030. The bulk of this growth is associated with the production of generics, creating conditions for fierce competition in the semaglutide segment. Medications that were previously available only to affluent patients may soon become more widespread.
Originally developed for diabetes treatment, these drugs have achieved revolutionary status for weight loss, offering results that many other methods could not provide. Semaglutide belongs to the class of GLP-1 receptor agonists, mimicking the hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar levels.
These drugs promote increased insulin secretion and slow gastric emptying, allowing patients to feel full more quickly and stay that way longer. As a result, they have become some of the most popular weight loss aids in the world.
Some Indian pharmaceutical companies are already actively preparing to launch generics. Shital Sapale, vice president of Pharmarack, reported that major players such as Cipla, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Biocon, Natco, Zydus, and Mankind Pharma plan to introduce their versions of the drugs, and many others may follow suit. Significant price reductions are expected.
Currently, monthly treatment costs are substantial: Ozempic is sold for between 8,800 and 11,000 rupees (from $95 to $119), while Wegovy ranges from 10,000 to 16,000 rupees (from $108 to $173). Sapale expects that with the arrival of generics, prices will drop to 3,000–5,000 rupees (from $36 to $54) per month.
Price reductions could significantly change the market.
According to Pharmarack data, the Indian market for obesity medications, including injectable and oral agents, grew from $16 million in 2021 to nearly $100 million. The market has been actively developing since the launch of Rybelsus, the first oral version of semaglutide, in 2022.
This phenomenon reflects broader changes in healthcare.
In India, over 77 million people suffer from type 2 diabetes, and the country has one of the largest populations of overweight adults in the world. Urban living, high-carbohydrate diets, and sedentary lifestyles have contributed to the rise of these diseases.
For doctors, more accessible GLP-1 inhibitors could become a powerful tool in combating these ailments.
Weight loss medications extend beyond endocrinology. Cardiologists use them for weight reduction in patients before procedures, orthopedic surgeons use them to reduce joint stress before surgeries, and pulmonologists use them to treat obstructive sleep apnea.
Muffazal Lakdawala, a bariatric surgeon from Mumbai, notes that these drugs could significantly broaden access to treatment for a large number of Indians suffering from diabetes and obesity.
He emphasizes that until recently, access to these medications was limited: injectable forms of GLP-1 were expensive and hard to come by, while the oral Rybelsus remained the only available option.
“It’s wonderful that the drugs will become cheaper, and more people with diabetes and obesity will gain access to them,” he says.
However, he warns: “The quality of domestically produced drugs must be under strict control.”
This caution reflects the reality of the Indian pharmaceutical industry, which is a leader in producing inexpensive generics.
India is the world's largest producer of generics, offering about 60,000 products in more than 60 therapeutic categories and accounting for about 20% of the global generics market.
The country’s reputation as the "pharmacy of the world" is largely based on its ability to make expensive medications accessible to a broad audience.
A vivid example is the situation two decades ago when Indian companies drastically reduced prices for antiretroviral drugs for HIV, significantly increasing access to treatment in Africa and other developing regions.
Today, India exports medicines to more than 200 countries, meeting over half of the demand for generics in Africa, about 40% of generics in the U.S., and roughly a quarter in the UK.
“The export potential of Indian weight loss generics is enormous,” claims Namit Joshi, chairman of the Indian Pharmaceutical Export Promotion Council. “In the U.S. alone, the market could reach $10 billion in the coming years as the obesity problem becomes increasingly pressing.”
This would be a significant addition to India's pharmaceutical trade: currently, the export of generics from the country amounts to $30.46 billion, with the U.S. already being the main market for Indian medicines.
However, caution remains among doctors.
GLP-1 inhibitors are powerful but can cause side effects. These include nausea, vomiting, and digestive disorders; rarer complications include gallstones and pancreatitis. Rapid weight loss without adequate protein intake or physical exercise can also lead to muscle loss.
Many patients do not fully understand how these drugs work. Some expect rapid weight loss, influenced by social media and celebrity advertising.
Rahul Baxi, a diabetologist from Mumbai, emphasizes that the success of treatment depends not only on medications but also on “the right patient selection.”
Doctors consider not only body mass index (BMI) but also comorbidities such as diabetes or high cholesterol. Lifestyle also plays an important role: if a patient’s diet remains unhealthy, a medication alone may not be enough.
Patients often come with requests for quick weight loss. “Some ask to lose 10 kg in three months,” says Baxi.
Too rapid weight loss can negatively impact health. It can lead to fat loss in the face, neck, arms, and thighs, making patients appear weak and emaciated.
“Gradual weight loss, slow dose escalation, and a focus on protein intake, physical exercise, and strength training are key elements for improving health,” notes Baxi.
Another issue is that weight loss often rebounds after stopping the medication. Appetite can surge as the body resists fat loss.
“When the medication is stopped, appetite returns with incredible force,” explains Baxi.
There are also concerns about potential abuse due to lower prices.
Some doctors report that high doses of medications are prescribed by trainers at gyms, nutritionists, or beauty salon staff who lack the authority to do so. Online pharmacies sometimes dispense medications after superficial consultations. Beauty salons are already offering weight loss packages for weddings or other events.
With the increased availability of cheaper generics, such practices may become more widespread.
“Widespread access to cheap medications increases the likelihood of abuse,” says Bhaumik Kamdar, a pulmonologist from Mumbai. “Greater responsibility and stricter control are needed. I have cautious optimism regarding these medications.”
This warning resonates with Lakdawala's concerns about manufacturing standards.
“These medications are very beneficial,” he emphasizes. “We do not want the side effects from poor-quality drugs to undermine the reputation of the molecule itself.”
The government is also trying to prevent excessive hype. Last week, the Indian drug regulator warned pharmaceutical companies against direct advertising of prescription weight loss medications, such as GLP-1 drugs, to the general public.
Advertising that promises impressive results or downplays the importance of diet and exercise may be deemed misleading, and officials stress that such medications should only be used under medical supervision.
Thus, the coming months may serve as an important test for regulators and doctors to find a balance between accessibility and control.
Baxi says he advises his patients to first improve their lifestyle and nutrition before prescribing weight loss medications.
Even then, he first recommends a high-protein diet designed by a nutritionist. Data indicate that medications may be needed for the long term. But many patients come with requests for a “quick fix after watching videos on Instagram,” which adds extra pressure on doctors.
Nevertheless, the benefits could be significant. Medications that once cost tens of thousands of rupees a month could become accessible to millions of people, including patients outside India.
“I am currently prescribing to many patients: come to me after March 20, when prices drop,” concludes Baxi.
The post Cheap Indian Weight Loss Drugs Could Change the Global Fight Against Obesity first appeared on K-News.
