In an interview available at the link, Kazhegeldin emphasized that "this is an important moment," adding that in the new Constitution, the human rights mentioned in the preamble are effectively ignored in the articles, leading to a concentration of power in the hands of one person. He noted that people can tolerate such changes for a certain period, but it is necessary to meet their needs.
“In democratic countries, elections are held regularly, allowing for corrections through voting. We do not have such an opportunity yet, but there is an alternative path — taking to the streets. I cannot guarantee stability; rather, we observe an unstable equilibrium that has persisted throughout the 21st century,” the politician added.
In light of the above, we decided to highlight the key points of Kazhegeldin's opinion on the new document and the current situation ahead of the referendum.
Reasons for Adopting the New Constitution
“The pace at which this event is occurring raises questions — citizens are given just over four weeks to discuss it, yet public discussions and the submission of proposals are prohibited. This indicates the presence of two main tasks: to close the nearly seven-year power transition and to take care of their own transition. I see no other tasks,” he noted.
Kazhegeldin emphasized that President Tokayev has repeatedly stated his intention to amend the Constitution only in 2027, as well as plans to abolish the Senate and introduce the position of vice president. Notably, in the new Constitution, the vice president will be appointed by the president as a permanent norm, indicating further concentration of power.
In his opinion, the desire for change may be driven by fear and discomfort caused by the fact that from 2019 to 2022, the president lacked independence and was forced to coordinate his decisions with the former head of state. This prolonged transitional situation has led to violence, and the rush to adopt the new Constitution is aimed at closing old doors and starting a new phase.
“People did not respect the 1995 Constitution, did not notice how the 1993 Constitution worked, and will not notice how the new one will operate. Formal mechanisms of transition and security will not work, just as in previous versions,” he added.
Kazhegeldin also pointed to global challenges faced by the authorities, including budget deficits, inflation, and rising prices for services and goods. “If the authorities cannot cope with these challenges and meet the needs of citizens, they will lose support,” he concluded, predicting that the new Constitution will not last longer than its predecessor.
Pros and Cons of the Constitution Draft
“Overall, there is nothing in the document that attracts me. It is a classic model of facade law, where human rights rhetoric in the preamble coexists with authoritarian mechanisms. Such regimes are called hybrid,” the politician noted.
He added that the authors of the Constitution draft have obviously overdone it and laid serious institutional problems. “The people, the sole source of power, will share their powers with the president for seven years. That is, the president receives the powers of the people, which does not necessarily correspond to the principles of a republic,” he emphasized.
“This is a peculiarity. The project was developed not by professional lawyers or political scientists; otherwise, they would have taken such nuances into account,” Kazhegeldin added.
The Future of Tokayev as President
Kazhegeldin noted that there are speculations that Tokayev is in a hurry because he plans to run for the position of UN Secretary-General, or he is tired and wants to transfer power while remaining within the power structure to control the transition. “There are many speculations on this topic,” he added.
“Biologically, it will be difficult for him to remain in power, considering the pressure he has faced. He does not have the resources to help citizens cope with difficulties,” the politician continued.
He also emphasized that Tokayev faces sabotage from the authorities and does not control financial flows. “The president cannot rely on state assets to replenish the budget, which creates additional difficulties,” Kazhegeldin noted.
“The next vice president will not be a guarantor of stability in the transition, as the only guarantee of stability will be the economic situation and the authorities' ability to cope with challenges,” he added.
The Return of the Nazarbayev Family to Power
Kazhegeldin emphasized that the new Constitution is considered "pro-Tokayev" only partially. “It implies a unicameral parliament, fully controlled by the president, which closes the doors for the return of Nazarbayev and his family to power,” he noted.
“After March 15, opportunities for them will be closed, but other norms of the Constitution are laid down for those who plan to come to power in 2028,” he concluded.
The opinion of Akzhan Kazhegeldin on the new Constitution of Kazakhstan was published on K-News.
