Politician Akhizhan Kazhegeldin, who served as Prime Minister of Kazakhstan from 1994 to 1997 and has lived in the UK for many years, characterized the upcoming constitutional referendum in March as a critical point of tension in the country in an interview with Bild.
He noted: "This is indeed a moment of significant tension. The discussion of the draft new Constitution is taking place at a higher level than in 1995, and it cannot be compared to what was happening then." Kazhegeldin emphasized that despite the presence of human rights in the preamble, they are effectively ignored in the articles and sections of the Constitution, leading to a concentration of power in the hands of one person. "People may tolerate this situation, but for that, they need to be provided for," he added.
According to him, in democratic systems, mistakes are usually corrected through voting after elections, but in Kazakhstan, there is no such opportunity. "We are left with only going out into the streets. I cannot guarantee stability. Now we have an unstable equilibrium that has persisted throughout the 21st century," the politician commented on the situation in the country.
Kazhegeldin shared his opinion on the draft Constitution and the current circumstances under which the referendum will take place, highlighting the most interesting points from his interview.
On the motives for adopting a new Constitution
“The haste with which this process is taking place — just four weeks for discussion, with public discussions and proposals banned — indicates the presence of two main goals. The first is to complete nearly seven years of power transition, and the second is to ensure one's own transition,” he noted.
Kazhegeldin also mentioned that President Tokayev has repeatedly stated plans to amend the Constitution only in 2027, which will lead to the abolition of the bicameral parliament and possibly the emergence of the position of vice president. “The emergence of a vice president appointed by the president as a permanent norm indicates further concentration of power,” he added.
The politician expressed the opinion that the haste in adopting the Constitution is related to the historical context when from 2019 to 2022, the head of state was limited in his powers. “This prolonged transitional situation has led to violence. Now it is necessary to close old doors and start thinking about the future,” he stated.
Moreover, according to Kazhegeldin, the population does not respect the 1995 Constitution, just as they did not notice how the 1993 Constitution worked. “If formal mechanisms are embedded in the new Constitution, they will not work, as was the case in 1995,” he emphasized.
Among the global challenges faced by the authorities, he highlighted the budget deficit, rising inflation, and climate change. “If the authorities cannot cope with these challenges and do not provide for the population, they will face collapse,” he warned.
“I do not believe that this Constitution will last longer than its predecessor. A new generation of politicians may write a new Constitution in the next ten years,” the politician concluded.
On the merits and demerits of the draft Constitution
“There is nothing in this draft that surprises me. It is a classic facade model, where human rights in the preamble coexist with authoritarian mechanisms,” Kazhegeldin noted. “Such regimes are referred to as hybrid by professionals.”
He added that those who worked on the draft clearly overdid it and are embedding serious institutional problems. “The people, the sole source of power, share their authority with the president for seven years, which does not indicate a republican structure,” he explained.
“This absurdity occurred due to a lack of qualification among those who developed the draft. If they had been lawyers or political scientists, they would have avoided such mistakes,” he added.
On the likelihood of Tokayev leaving the presidency
Kazhegeldin noted that there is an opinion that Tokayev is in a hurry because he plans to run for the position of UN Secretary-General, or he is tired and wants to hand over power. “There are many rumors about this,” he noted.
The politician added that it will be difficult for Tokayev to remain in office, given the pressure and resistance he faces. “He has no means to help citizens through difficult times,” he emphasized.
“He faces sabotage from the authorities, and many officials are still loyal to the previous regime. The president has not yet established control over financial flows, which creates additional difficulties,” Kazhegeldin noted.
“I am confident that the future vice president, whoever he may be, will not be a guarantor of stability. The only guarantor will be the socio-economic situation in the country,” he concluded.
On the possibility of the "Nazarbayev family" returning to power
Kazhegeldin noted that many consider the new Constitution to be “pro-Tokayev.” “However, it is only partially so. The unicameral parliament and control over the delegation in parliament through political parties are steps that close the doors for Nursultan Nazarbayev and his family after March 15,” he explained.
“Everything else in the Constitution is ‘pro-administrative.’ These norms are created by people who plan to come to power in 2028 and are laying the groundwork for themselves,” he added.
The record "For whom the new Constitution of Kyrgyzstan was written. Opinion of Akhizhan Kazhegeldin" first appeared in K-News.
