The Ministry of Water Resources established in Kazakhstan is unable to solve the problem of water scarcity. The main mistake lies in the fact that its primary task is to support economic growth. In the near future, there may arise a situation where water reserves will not be sufficient even for current needs. This is not a scare tactic, but a harsh reality that many refuse to accept. This was discussed in an interview with Bulat Yesekin, an international expert and coordinator of the Central Asian platform for water resource management and climate change, as reported by Exclusive.kz.
– At first glance, water is becoming a critically important resource. However, are real steps being taken to address this problem?
– The Iranian crisis shows that we can no longer wait. Water reserves in reservoirs, underground aquifers, and rivers are rapidly depleting. Tehran, with its 10 million residents, is on the brink of a water collapse, threatening daily life, the economy, industry, and agriculture. This is just the beginning. Some regions are experiencing drought, while others are facing floods.
Last year, global water conferences were held at the initiative of the presidents of Kazakhstan and France, which had not taken place in the last 50 years. Previously, water issues were viewed as local, but this summit recognized that global water cycles are disrupted.
– What factors have disrupted this balance?
– The main reason is human activity. We have disrupted the soil's ability to retain water, even though it holds more moisture than all the rivers and lakes in the world combined. This supports fertility and crop yields.
However, land cultivation, infrastructure construction, and resource development continue to destroy the earth's surface. There are almost no untouched areas left on the planet.
Every year, water extraction increases. The growing population demands more resources. We disrupt the natural flow of rivers by building dams and reservoirs. In Central Asia, for example, more than 400 such structures have already been built, and governments plan to construct over 200 more.
– The World Bank in its latest report pointed to water scarcity as one of the four causes of potential military conflict in Central Asia. What could be a trigger?
– There have already been instances of military conflicts over water in Central Asia. If states do not respond appropriately, the problem will escalate rapidly. We have limited response measures, and they need to be used as effectively as possible. This is evident to experts and scientific organizations.
If the water crisis is caused by our activities, then measures must be aimed at eliminating its causes.
Forests play a crucial role in transferring precipitation, especially in Central Asia and China, which are far from the ocean. More than 50% of precipitation there comes through the Eurasian forest massif. If this mechanism is disrupted, it needs to be restored.
– What steps should states take first to stop the worsening water crisis?
– At a minimum, they should start restoring forest ecosystems and soils, and cease the destruction of water flows, which is currently targeted by programs in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries.
Just look at Kazakhstan's plans: we are planning a significant increase in irrigated lands, which will lead to a rise in the number of reservoirs and infrastructure that require more and more water. This is compounded by programs to create water-intensive facilities, such as data centers, and the expansion of industrial production.
Virtually all state programs funded from the budget are aimed at increasing the burden on water resources. Meanwhile, scientific recommendations are clear: this burden must be stopped, and we must transition to restoring water flows.
The Illusion of Water Abundance
– More than ten years ago, an assessment of the water sector was conducted for the government by McKinsey.
It showed that by this decade, Kazakhstan would face severe water shortages: the volume of available resources would decrease by about 50%.
This is not about all water, but about the water that can be realistically used, taking into account transboundary agreements and purification capabilities. According to estimates, this volume is about 24 cubic kilometers per year.
However, forecasts indicate that in the future, less than 12 km³ will be available — half as much. And this is despite the fact that just this year, about 11 km³ of water was directed to irrigation in the southern regions. As a result, there will be a sharp shortage of water for industry, utilities, and agriculture.
The structure of production and consumption is set up as if there is no water scarcity. All strategies still assume growth: more energy, more agricultural products, and utilities. But even the water-saving measures outlined in the new Water Code are unable to change the situation. The savings are insufficient.
Moreover, Kazakhstan depends on neighboring countries, which also experience a growing demand for water. Economic strategies do not take this into account, and this is the main problem.
– Is the adoption of the new Water Code and the establishment of a relevant ministry in Kazakhstan a step towards solving the problem or just an illusion of control?
– When the creation of the new agency was discussed, my team actively supported this idea. It was important to concentrate all water-related issues in one place and establish stricter rules for resource use.
However, in practice, the focus has once again shifted to rational water use rather than its restoration. Measures for restoring water flows and ecosystems have effectively fallen out of the document.
The new ministry has primarily focused on ensuring water supply to all consumers, proposing to drill new wells and build reservoirs. But this approach only exacerbates the problem.
Budgets have been launched for the construction of reservoirs and canals, but stopping this mechanism is difficult. Only a severe crisis, the signs of which we are already seeing in neighboring countries, can lead to changes. In Uzbekistan, for example, it is reported that reservoirs are filling less effectively.
In this situation, alarming signals are emerging. One of the ministers in Central Asia noted that in the event of water shortages, no one will pay attention to existing agreements. People will also not follow the rules when they have no water for irrigation or survival.
Balkhash, Ural, Caspian: Limits of Possibility
– What specific actions should the state take to prevent the expansion of water-intensive production and avoid catastrophe?
– Specific tough decisions are needed. This year, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Water Resources emphasized the importance of explaining to people that they will have to abandon water-intensive crops because there simply will not be enough water for them. Otherwise, farmers may be left without water and go bankrupt.
Nevertheless, in major regions of the country, large volumes of water continue to be extracted for rice — one of the most water-intensive crops, requiring 4,000 to 6,000 liters of water per 1 kg. Despite this, Kazakhstan and Central Asia plan to increase rice production. Last year, its output increased by 100,000 tons, which required about 500 million cubic meters of water, a significant portion of which was exported. In other words, we are effectively giving away water not for our own needs, but for the profit of certain companies.
The same situation exists in industry: many products require a lot of water, but this factor is hardly taken into account. Therefore, strict limits must be set on the production of water-intensive products, and a serious analysis must be conducted — what we produce and consume, including exports and imports, and whether there will be enough water for this in the context of dwindling resources.
The government will have to make difficult decisions — to scale back water-intensive production and help people transition to other types of activities. For now, however, the authorities are limited to recommendations and meetings, which is no longer sufficient.
– Where can Kazakhstan source water if nature can no longer cope?
– Today, we have no source of water other than Balkhash, Ural, and the Caspian Sea. But all these ecosystems are in critical condition. The Northern Ural is at its limit, Balkhash is degrading, and the Caspian is shrinking due to the shallowing of the Volga, one of its main sources.
The key task is to restore the earth's ability to support local water cycles that fill rivers, lakes, and underground sources. This should become a priority. But today, neither Kazakhstan, nor Russia, nor Central Asia is conducting systematic work in this direction. We have become accustomed to nature replenishing resources on its own, even though we have destroyed this ability.
The problem is exacerbated by fragmented management: water resources are handled by one entity, energy by another, and climate by a third. This disunity hinders joint actions and understanding of the interconnections between processes. When resources were sufficient, such a model worked. Now it does not.
The disaster of the Aral Sea clearly demonstrates that water can only be extracted up to a certain limit. When this limit is exceeded, the ecosystem is completely destroyed.
It is like a tree: as long as you take the fruits and branches, it lives. But if you reach the roots, it dies, and you lose everything. We have already exceeded the permissible load on nature, which is linked to climate, water, and ecological crises, followed by social and military conflicts.
Time is Running Out...
– How much time do we have left? Does humanity have a buffer for preparation, or are we already living in countdown mode?
– Just recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported serious consequences by the end of the century. Climate is an indicator of the planet's health. Then the deadlines began to shift: first, they spoke of the middle of the century, then of an earlier period.
Today, independent scientific centers warn that the water crisis could strike suddenly, like an avalanche or a storm, and this could happen in the coming years.
We have already seen this in the case of Iran. Scientists understand the scale of the threat, but politicians are preoccupied with elections, reports, and quick victories...
– Can Kazakhstan not only be a participant but also an initiator and leader of regional solutions to this important issue?
– Absolutely, it can. Kazakhstan, together with the UN, is preparing a global environmental summit to be held from April 22 to 24. The subject of discussion is water as the most pressing issue in the region.
Kazakhstan has proposed to develop its own vision for overcoming the global water crisis, focusing on Central Asia and transboundary rivers, as well as on national and local measures. This involves concrete steps that can be implemented in practice and will help mitigate climate consequences.
This is a unique opportunity for Kazakhstan to draw the attention of the international community and to act as an initiator of uniting the efforts of Central Asian countries in addressing water issues using new technologies and knowledge accumulated worldwide.
