According to Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EADB), the population of Central Asia may increase to 96 million by 2040, which will lead to unprecedented pressure on the region's vital infrastructure. He noted that this region is considered one of the fastest-growing in the world; however, this growth is accompanied by serious environmental and logistical risks.
One of the main threats, according to Podguzov, is the growing shortage of water resources. Forecasts indicate that by 2028, the water deficit could range from 5 to 12 cubic kilometers per year. The worsening situation is linked to climate change and the critical state of infrastructure, resulting in a significant portion of resources being lost before reaching consumers. In this regard, the EADB has already begun financing projects aimed at modernizing irrigation systems and implementing digital water accounting in the region.
The problem of transportation remoteness is also acute. Central Asia is located more than 3,000 kilometers from the world's oceans, which increases trade costs by 20-40%. This slows the region's economic growth by 1.5 percentage points each year. To address this issue, the EADB proposed a concept for creating a Eurasian transport framework, which includes the establishment of a network of corridors, such as the "North-South" routes and the Trans-Afghan corridor, allowing direct access to the markets of South Asia and the Persian Gulf.
Podguzov emphasized that in order for demographic growth not to lead to a humanitarian crisis, the region urgently needs a technological leap in water resource management, energy, and transportation infrastructure. Only large-scale investments in connectivity and energy efficiency can ensure the long-term sustainability of Central Asian countries.
