"From Superpresidency to 'Strong State of Rules'"

Сергей Гармаш Analytics
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From 'Superpresidency' to 'Strong State Rule'

How President Tokayev Completes the Architecture of a Just State


On March 15, 2026, Kazakhstan will hold a nationwide referendum, marking an important milestone in the country's history. This step represents not just another round of constitutional changes, but a large-scale transformation of the state structure and fundamental values. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev initiated this process, symbolizing the end of the era of superpresidential rule.

The main goal of the reform is to create a balanced system where stable political institutions take precedence over the personal influence of individuals. The proposed changes aim for an effective distribution of powers among the various branches of government and to strengthen the system of checks and balances. This demonstrates a strategic approach by the leadership focused on the long-term stability and development of Kazakhstan. The new constitutional model completes the process of deep institutional transformations initiated by Tokayev.

Abandoning the Superpresidential Model as Tokayev's Conscious Choice

In political history, there are few examples of an incumbent president, possessing full power, opting for decentralization. The 2026 reform in Kazakhstan becomes such a precedent. It is not merely a technical update to the Constitution, but a conceptual rejection of the superpresidential model. Kazakhstan is transitioning to a presidential republic with a strong and influential parliament, completing the transformation of state institutions.

At the heart of this process is Tokayev's decision to redistribute powers. The goal of the reform is to create a system of checks and balances that ensures the state's resilience for decades, independent of any specific leader. The formula of the new model combines a strong president, who guarantees the course, with an active parliament and a government accountable to elected representatives.

A key element of the transformation is the establishment of a unicameral parliament — the National Kurultai. This body gains real power over the executive branch. A significant innovation is the Kurultai's right to express a vote of no confidence in the government, as well as to initiate the dismissal of ministers if they fail to comply with the laws. A decision on such a vote, with a two-thirds majority, becomes mandatory for the president.

The redistribution of powers also affects personnel appointments. Now, the Kurultai's consent is required for the appointment of the prime minister, vice president, judges of the Constitutional Court, and members of the Central Election Commission. The president is no longer allowed to make such decisions unilaterally; he must consult with party factions, making the power formation process more transparent and inclusive.

In the new system, special attention is given to continuity and stability. The introduction of the vice presidency and a clear definition of the order of succession (vice president, chairman of the Kurultai, prime minister) eliminates legal loopholes and risks of political instability. Thus, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is creating a legal framework where the interests of the nation and the stability of the authorities take precedence over personal ambitions, transforming Kazakhstan into a modern republic with functioning democratic institutions.

The Kurultai as a New Center of Responsibility and Public Control

The establishment of the National Kurultai as a single legislative chamber represents a shift to a more dynamic and accountable governance model. The abolition of the bicameral structure removes bureaucratic barriers and simplifies the coordination of legislative proposals. The parliament now consists of a compact and functional body of 145 deputies, capable of quickly responding to contemporary challenges and societal needs.

However, the importance of the reform lies not only in speeding up the legislative process but also in expanding oversight. The Kurultai becomes the center of political responsibility. Deputies are empowered to initiate the dismissal of ministers in cases of inefficiency or violations of the law. If two-thirds of the parliament supports such a decision, it becomes mandatory for execution, placing ministers in a position dependent on the quality of their work before elected representatives.

The legislative power also gains new economic levers of influence. The approval of budget reports becomes a serious test. If a report is not approved, it automatically leads to a vote of no confidence in the entire cabinet of ministers. The linkage of financial control and political accountability ensures the pragmatism and transparency of government actions.

The increased role of the Kurultai also pertains to its personnel powers. The parliament gains the right to participate in the formation of independent institutions, such as the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission, which were previously under presidential control. Thus, through the Kurultai, the principle of popular sovereignty is realized, and the government becomes accountable not only to the president but also to the representatives of the people, making the governance system more resilient and protected.

The Development of Multy-Party System as Strengthening Democracy

The third aspect of the constitutional reform focuses on the development of a multi-party system and the qualitative renewal of representative democracy. The transition to a fully proportional electoral system stimulates the strengthening of political parties. Now, parties become not just electoral mechanisms but active institutions responsible for shaping state policy.

The proportional voting system based on party lists ensures adequate representation of the entire political spectrum in the Kurultai. This creates conditions for fair competition of ideas, where a party's success depends on its ability to offer a viable strategy to society. This approach requires parties to enhance the quality of their internal work and engage in long-term dialogue with voters, as party accountability becomes the key to political survival.

The institutionalization of political pluralism makes multi-party system the foundation of state structure. The participation of party factions in consultations when appointing key officials, including the prime minister, makes the political process more inclusive and diverse. Different viewpoints gain a legal platform, minimizing the risks of power monopolization.

Ensuring Stability and a Transparent Transition of Power

Political stability during leadership transitions is critically important for a developing state. The 2026 reform offers a systematic solution to this challenge through the establishment of the vice presidency and clear rules for the transfer of power. This creates a "safety corridor," minimizing the risks of political turbulence.

The vice presidency is appointed by the head of state with the mandatory consent of the Kurultai. This position implies that, if necessary, the vice president becomes the temporary head of state. Importantly, the new Constitution establishes deadlines for extraordinary elections — they must be held within two months, preventing prolonged periods of interim governance.

A clear hierarchy of succession — vice president, chairman of the Kurultai, and prime minister — eliminates disputes over leadership. This provides participants in the political process and international partners with a clear understanding of how the state functions in emergencies. Such predictability fosters trust in institutions and maintains the country's investment attractiveness.

The institutionalization of this process excludes any attempts at unconstitutional power grabs. Thus, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev implements a system that shifts succession issues into the legal realm. This is a significant step towards the long-term stability of Kazakhstan, making the political system more mature and protected from upheavals.

Completion of the Architecture of a "Just Kazakhstan"

The referendum on March 15, 2026, will mark the final stage in the large-scale reorganization of the state structure. With this step, Kazakhstan concludes the period of institutional uncertainty and transitions to the architecture of a Just Kazakhstan. If the previous model was based on personal authority, the new constitutional structure of Tokayev emphasizes stable institutions and the rule of law.

In the new reality, which experts call the Third Republic, the people are recognized as the sole source of power. This is not just a declaration but the basis for creating professional and accountable structures to society. The draft of the new Constitution enshrines a social contract, where the state commits to serving the interests of citizens through transparent control mechanisms.

A key element of this transformation is the shift in development priorities. Kazakhstan officially proclaims a strategic transition from resource dependency to a focus on human capital, with education, science, and innovation as central priorities. This defines the country's direction for the future, ensuring institutional transformation and value modernization, turning Kazakhstan into a modern rule-of-law state.

The adoption of the new Constitution symbolizes the creation of a mature political system capable of effectively responding to global challenges. The completion of institutional transformations creates legal conditions for long-term stability. This is a logical outcome of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's course towards building a state where justice and legality become the foundation of the work of all branches of power.

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