In most Russian regions, gasoline prices are rising almost every week. Experts discuss how prices may change in April in an article on 56orb.ru.
Why are oil prices falling while gasoline prices remain high?
Dmitry Matveev, General Director of "My Car Rental," notes that gasoline prices at Russian gas stations are little affected by global oil prices. The main part of the cost of each liter consists of taxes, which account for 65-70% of the price, while the share of oil in the price is only 15%.
— Since the beginning of the year, fuel excise taxes have increased by 5.1%. If global oil prices rise, companies tend to increase exports, as this brings greater profits (from 20 to 30% margin). However, this can lead to a decrease in the volume of fuel in the domestic market, which, in turn, causes price increases. To prevent such a situation, the government introduces damping payments, compensating part of the lost profits on the condition of maintaining stable prices within the country. In case of a worsening situation, authorities may restrict gasoline exports, — he believes.
It is also worth noting that in the Orenburg region, there is a decline in prices for gas and oil, yet gasoline continues to rise in price — an increase of more than 11% has been recorded.
What influences gasoline prices in Russia?
The specialist adds that gasoline prices significantly influence overall inflation in the country. Therefore, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance strive to find a balance between price control and budget replenishment through taxes on oil and gas.
— Gasoline prices depend on the operation of oil refineries, their productivity, and their ability to cope with external problems. Due to drone attacks, unscheduled repairs and logistics disruptions may occur, leading to fuel shortages and price increases in some regions.
The main factors contributing to the rise in fuel prices are as follows:
- seasonal increase in consumption related to spring fieldwork, which will last until mid-June;
- increased domestic car tourism in the spring-summer period due to a rise in weekend trips;
- increased logistical load and activation of online trading before the summer season.
— Authorities reassure the population: there is no gasoline shortage in the country. Prices will rise, but within the limits of inflation. I believe that this will be the case, — summarizes Dmitry Matveev.
Forecasts for gasoline prices in April 2026
Olga Borisova, Associate Professor of Corporate Finance at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, expects that in April 2026, gasoline prices will gradually rise, not exceeding one to two rubles per liter.
This is due to the seasonal increase in demand from agricultural work, the dacha season, and the rise in the number of tourist trips, as well as repairs at oil refineries.
— The damping mechanism and the extension of the export ban for traders help control the market situation and prevent sharp price spikes. However, this mechanism lacks a price reduction mechanism for gasoline, — adds the expert.
The following factors will influence price formation in April:
- damping, which is the main restraining factor for price growth;
- the condition of oil refineries and the fuel supply in the market;
- the government's position on export restrictions;
- seasonal factors;
- trade regulation, including exchange trading.
The expert notes that despite the complexities of the current pricing mechanism, it has achieved its goal: it has managed to slow the pace of price growth observed in 2025 and stabilize the market at the beginning of 2026, which will allow market participants to observe a more predictable situation in April.
Gasoline prices in Russia continue to rise
Which fuel has risen the most in price: data from Rosstat
According to Rosstat information as of March 23, prices for gasoline and diesel fuel have also increased:
- AI-92 — an average of 63.02 rubles (+23 kopecks over the week);
- AI-95 — 68.43 rubles (+25 kopecks);
- AI-98 and above — 92.36 rubles (+24 kopecks);
- diesel fuel — 77.60 rubles (+18 kopecks).
Gasoline prices in Orenburg Region: data from Orenburgstat
As of March 23, according to Orenburgstat data, average prices for gasoline and diesel have also increased compared to the previous week:
- AI-92 — 61.72 rubles per liter, while on March 16 the price was 61.52 rubles (+20 kopecks over the week);
- AI-95 — 66.31 rubles, while on March 10 the price was 66.12 rubles (+19 kopecks);
- AI-98 and above — 89.99 rubles per liter (+17 kopecks over the week).
Diesel fuel has also become more expensive — its cost increased by one kopeck: from 75.64 to 75.65 rubles.
Moreover, the editorial office of 56orb received photos from readers showing that at one of the gas stations in Orenburg, the price of gasoline of the "95" brand has already exceeded 70 rubles per liter. To fill up a full tank, a motorist has to spend more than 3742 rubles.
