Experts predict that the fuel market in Kazakhstan may start experiencing changes in the near future, as reported by Finratings.kz.
Period of Price Increases
Currently, there is a moratorium on price increases in the country. However, according to Nurlan Zhumagulov, director of the Energy Monitor fund, its cancellation may happen soon.
The expert assures that the price increase will occur gradually, as the country has sufficient reserves of gasoline and diesel, and no shortages are forecasted.
It is expected that changes will begin closer to summer, with the main reason being the need to revise prices considering tax obligations.
In particular, this concerns the difference in VAT, which is approximately 4%. This is the minimum amount by which prices could rise in the short term.
Reasons for Rising Oil Prices
There is increasing instability in international markets. The price of Brent crude oil has already exceeded $110 per barrel.
Experts do not rule out that prices may rise further. In the event of logistics and supply issues, the price per barrel could reach $200.
However, domestic fuel prices in Kazakhstan do not directly depend on world quotations, as part of the oil is supplied to the domestic market under regulated conditions.
Possibility of Gasoline Shortage
Experts are confident that there will be no fuel shortages. Kazakhstan's oil refineries are capable of fully meeting domestic demand.
Thus, the price increase will be driven not by shortages, but by economic factors.
A more significant price increase is possible in the long term. Economist Rakhimbek Abdrakhmanov links this to market integration within the EAEU.
In his opinion, fuel prices in Kazakhstan will gradually align with the prices of neighboring countries, where gasoline is more expensive.
As a result, the cost could increase by 70–90%.
With the current price of AI-92 gasoline at 239 tenge per liter, this would lead to the following values:
— about 406 tenge with a 70% increase
— up to 454 tenge with a 90% increase
Experts suggest that the market will gradually transition to a more free pricing mechanism, while support for the population should be provided in a targeted manner.
For drivers, this may mean an increase in fuel expenses in the near future.
