In an article published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment in February 2026, experts emphasize that "climate change has already become a driver of increased water consumption in agriculture, especially in the Amu Darya basin."
It is important to note that even with the introduction of new technologies in agriculture, the overall volume of water will not increase. Climatic conditions negate the positive results of reforms. This article by 24.kg examines the risks the region will face this summer and possible measures to minimize the consequences to avoid shortages of both water and food.
Water as a Valuable Resource: Not for Everyone
Experts from the World Meteorological Organization report in their report that the global climate has entered a phase of unprecedented instability.
The study shows that the concentration of greenhouse gases has reached record levels, oceans continue to warm, and glaciers are melting at an accelerated pace.
“The period from 2015 to 2025 has been the warmest on record. Last year, according to preliminary data, was among the three hottest, with the average global temperature currently exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.43 degrees Celsius,” the scientists point out.
Central Asia is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.
Researchers are recording accelerated glacier melting, which is crucial for the water supply of the countries in the region. The number of extreme natural phenomena, such as droughts and floods, has increased. Additionally, the mountainous terrain and dependence on glacial waters exacerbate the effects of global warming faster than in other parts of the world.
WMO specialists warn that further temperature increases will heighten risks to water resources, agriculture, and energy in Central Asia, and the summer of 2026 will be even drier.
The Precipitation Paradox: Rain Exists, but Water Does Not
An article published in the journal Climatic Change in December 2025 states that a group of researchers from the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture argues that despite the expected increase in rainfall during the summer, water availability will not improve. This is because the soil does not retain moisture, and water simply runs off into the ocean.
According to Bulat Yesekin, coordinator of the Central Asian Platform for Water Resource Management and Climate Change, this not only leads to a reduction in water resources but also disrupts the water cycle, decreasing the amount of water available for agriculture.
The scientist emphasizes that food is produced not in laboratories but on land, and forecasts indicate that the drying process will only intensify in the next 50 years, potentially leading to irreversible consequences.
“Humanity is not reducing its load; on the contrary, it is increasing it. More than 400 dams have already been built in Central Asia, and there are almost no rivers left unregulated, which directly affects the redistribution of water resources. Countries in the region plan to build over 200 more large dams and more than 1,000 hydropower plants,” warns the specialist.
As a result, negative processes will only deepen in both the short and long term, which for Central Asia means not only a water deficit but also an increase in water conflicts.
Bulat Yesekin
As early as 2013, European researchers warned that if the region continues its active dam construction and land cultivation, the water deficit could reach 50%. This means that half of the usual volume will become unavailable.
There is already a recorded increase in water risks, including a rise in the frequency of droughts and floods, and the likelihood of drought crises has increased fourfold.
Against this backdrop, competition among water users—agriculture, industry, and the municipal sector—is increasing, and water scarcity is becoming systemic.
“Institutional management mechanisms remain weak. All functions are concentrated in the hands of specialized agencies that allocate resources and negotiate transboundary waters. However, in conditions of scarcity, this is insufficient. International agreements are effective only when there is enough water. When it decreases, conflicts arise,” continues the scientist.
He believes that one of the optimal solutions could be the transition to basin management, which unites all water users within a single river basin: the state, farmers, energy producers, and experts.
Basin councils make decisions on water allocation, discharge regimes, and tariffs based on seeking compromise and balancing interests. Such practices are successfully applied in countries like France, the USA, Japan, and Canada.
According to Bulat Yesekin, basin-level management is the most effective as it takes into account the natural characteristics of water systems rather than administrative boundaries. However, in Central Asia, these mechanisms are still in the early stages of development, despite being outlined in water codes.
Soil as a Bucket
However, simply transitioning to basin management is not enough. A key point is the need to restore the soil's ability to retain water.
There are many simple and inexpensive technologies, such as creating micro-reliefs that help accumulate precipitation and retain moisture. This allows for a reduction in the need for artificial irrigation, restores natural soil moisture, and creates sustainable agro-systems. Such practices are already being used in Europe, Africa, and India.
“It is also important to restore forests, which play a critical role in precipitation formation and moisture transfer. Forested areas act as 'pumps' in the global water cycle. At the same time, in several countries, such as the USA and Europe, there is a trend of dismantling dams to restore natural ecosystems,” emphasizes Bulat Yesekin.
Another promising direction is granting legal rights to nature. In Ecuador, natural entities have legal status, allowing them to be protected through the courts, creating additional barriers to ecologically destructive decisions.
Central Asia has reached a state that can be called "water bankruptcy." The water cycle is disrupted, resources are depleted, and restorative mechanisms are weakened.
“This leads to a deterioration of food security, increased migration, land degradation, and heightened conflicts. Without changing approaches, these processes will only escalate,” summarizes the scientist.
Greening specialist Dmitry Pereyaslavsky agrees with this. In a comment to 24.kg, he noted that the past winter was warm and had little snow, while it is during this period that glaciers and snowfields are formed, providing summer water inflow.
Glaciers are shrinking—this is already a long-term trend.
“Glaciers and snowfields are a strategic water reserve for the region. The majority of them are concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, from where water flows to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. A lack of precipitation in winter increases the likelihood of water shortages in summer, exacerbating competition between states,” adds the expert.
The solution to the situation is to improve water use efficiency. The use of drip irrigation and the creation of local reservoirs for water accumulation are becoming necessities rather than innovations.
He also suggests reconsidering the structure of agriculture, moving away from water-intensive crops like cotton in favor of less water-consuming and more sustainable options.
One of the key directions should be the restoration of natural mechanisms for precipitation formation, with greening being one of the main tools.
Read more on the topic
Instead of green mountains, sandy dunes. Why life will disappear in Central Asia
“Creating forest and shrub areas contributes to the formation of moist air masses and increases the likelihood of precipitation. However, such projects must be based on a scientific approach that takes into account local flora and ecosystems. An infrastructural approach is also important, which includes the construction of reservoirs, but with new requirements, preference should be given to deep reservoirs in mountain gorges to minimize evaporation and preserve river ecosystems,” continues Dmitry Pereyaslavsky.
Complete closure of rivers is unacceptable, but careful regulation of flow is possible.
A key condition for the implementation of such projects is interstate cooperation based on transparency and trust.
Thus, the strategy should be based on three main principles:
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ecological – restoration of natural ecosystems;
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infrastructural – effective storage and distribution of water;
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agricultural – rational use and selection of crops.
The expert reminds us that any large water projects raise concerns among neighbors, so the focus should be on optimizing existing systems rather than expanding them.
It is important to realize that with rising temperatures and climate change, water consumption will grow, regardless of political decisions. Therefore, the issue of rational water resource management becomes paramount for the region.
In Conclusion
Central Asia is rapidly entering a new reality where water is not just a resource but a matter of survival, economy, and politics.
Climate change is altering the rules of the game: it disrupts the water cycle, intensifies extreme natural phenomena, and exacerbates competition for resources. If previously water scarcity was considered a future threat, it is now becoming a reality.
The main challenge lies not only in the division of water but also in the necessity of its conservation.
Experts signal the need to revise approaches to river management and land relations; otherwise, the region risks facing not only a water crisis but also a food crisis.
Now the question is not whether this crisis will occur, but how prepared the countries of Central Asia will be for its consequences.
