The Gulf Stream, transporting warm salty water from the tropics to Northwestern Europe, cools and returns south along the ocean floor. The part of this current that runs along the eastern coast of the United States up to North Carolina is called the Gulf Stream.
According to models, if the AMOC continues to weaken, the Gulf Stream could sharply shift by more than 200 kilometers in just two years, leading to significant cooling in Europe. Temperatures in London could drop to −20 °C, while in Oslo they could reach −48 °C.
The need to investigate Gulf Stream trends has become evident against the backdrop of the melting Greenland ice sheet, which leads to the dilution of salty water and the slowing of currents. Modeling conducted by scientists from Utrecht University has shown that the Gulf Stream is shifting further north each year.
Historical data indicate that since 1950, the speed of the AMOC has decreased by 15 percent. Observations made since 2004 do not provide a complete picture, so scientists are using the change in the Gulf Stream's trajectory as an alternative indicator of the weakening circulation.
Researchers emphasize that a sudden change in the Gulf Stream could be a precursor to the imminent cessation of the AMOC, although the exact timeline remains uncertain and could vary from decades to centuries.
Experts point out that climate models may underestimate the rate of AMOC weakening, and the actual shift of the Gulf Stream confirms the trend of slowing ocean currents. This opens up the possibility for Europe to prepare for climate changes, for example, by insulating residential buildings and revising agricultural practices.
