The key factor contributing to the price increase is the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is crucial for global trade, as it accounts for up to a third of maritime oil supplies and significant volumes of liquefied gas. According to Western publications, many tankers have suspended their routes in anticipation of further developments, and many insurance companies are reviewing their terms for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf.
Ajay Parmar, an expert at ICIS, noted that it is the threat of blocking the strait, rather than the military strikes themselves, that creates the so-called military premium in the market. He predicts that in the event of prolonged shipping restrictions, the price could quickly reach $100 and even exceed that mark.
The OPEC+ alliance announced plans to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, which exceeds the previously planned 137,000. However, analysts express doubts that this volume will be sufficient to compensate for a possible shortage if supplies from the region are seriously disrupted.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, suggested that if the Strait of Hormuz were completely closed, oil prices could rise to $120-150 per barrel. He also emphasized that even considering alternative routes, such as land pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the market could be short by 8 to 10 million barrels per day.
