Since 2014, Turkey has seen a significant decline in birth rates, putting the country in a state known as demographic winter. According to forecasts from the Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the number of children of primary school age may decrease by 900,000 over the next five years.
These changes are already affecting the operations of universities. In 2025, private universities were able to fill only 75.8% of their study places, the lowest figure in the last five years.
Some educational institutions have not even managed to reach half of their planned student enrollment numbers.
Private universities have proven to be the most vulnerable, as up to 80% of their budget is formed from tuition fees.
Education analysts warn that in the next ten years, some universities may close, merge with others, or be forced to radically change their operational format.
The situation where universities lose their main stream of students has already been observed in Japan and South Korea and is referred to as "zombie universities."
In addition to demographic changes, other factors are influencing the decline in the number of applicants: reduced confidence in employment after graduation, the growing popularity of short-term vocational courses and online education, as well as the desire of young people to enter the labor market more quickly.
Experts are confident that higher education in Turkey is on the brink of structural changes, and it is primarily private universities that will need to adapt to the new conditions.
In response to the decline in the number of local students, the Turkish authorities are considering the possibility of attracting foreign applicants to compensate for this loss.
