The conflict in the Middle East, involving the interests of Israel, the USA, and Iran, could lead to a global economic collapse. At the beginning of 2026, international financial organizations expressed moderate expectations regarding GDP growth; however, current events are changing these forecasts. Experts who previously predicted a global recession by 2027 are now confident that the economic crisis could begin much sooner.
A key factor contributing to this is the sharp rise in energy resource prices. The blockage of vital maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, has already caused oil prices to increase by one and a half times. Such changes are reminiscent of the shock the world experienced during the energy crisis of 1973. The increase in logistics and raw material costs will inevitably lead to inflation rising to double-digit values, forcing central banks to raise interest rates. This move could be the "final nail" for already stagnant markets.
Additional complications arise from the structural problems of capitalism: a significant gap between production capacities and actual demand, as well as colossal debts. In the USA, during Donald Trump's administration, the national debt increased to a staggering 39 trillion dollars in just one year. At current interest rates, the country's economy is unable to service such obligations through internal growth. Europe and China are also facing a similar situation, where total debts exceed 300% of GDP.
Historically, there are three paths to emerge from such crises: declaring bankruptcy, devaluing currency through hyperinflation, or initiating a major war. It seems that Washington is choosing the path of military aggression, hoping to eliminate the accumulated imbalances through military actions. However, instead of restoring American influence on the world stage, such a strategy risks deepening the fall of the global economic system into a prolonged depression, from which recovery this year seems unlikely.
