As part of an analysis conducted by the Singularis analytical club and published on the platform VB.KG, experts from various fields concluded that "the world is currently experiencing an era of 'great reset' of security." In the context of conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia, the survival of countries like Kyrgyzstan is becoming a matter of practical necessity rather than theoretical discussion. The results of the analysis cover various aspects of security both in our country and in a global context, emphasizing the need for not only analysis but also active measures to prevent the worst-case scenario.
Now the world is facing collapse. The death of Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the beginning of Operation "Epic Fury" in March 2026 have led to Iran losing its status as a stable supplier of energy resources. This, in turn, has caused a sharp rise in oil prices in the range of $100–150 per barrel, negatively affecting countries dependent on imports, such as Kyrgyzstan. As a result, Kyrgyzstan risks facing rising prices for fuel and lubricants, 90% of which depend on external supplies, as well as logistical problems. At the same time, the open war between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which began in February 2026, creates an additional zone of instability on the borders of Central Asia. Pakistan, possessing a nuclear arsenal and an army of 650,000, is forced to concentrate its resources on fighting the Taliban, undermining regional projects such as CASA-1000. Afghanistan, having endured 40 years of guerrilla warfare, has become a "black hole," from which over 115,000 refugees had left the country by March 2026.
The experience of past crises, such as the Indian blackout of 2012, when 670 million people were left without electricity, and the pandemic of 2020, revealed Kyrgyzstan's vulnerability—its dependence on imported food and medicines. The closure of borders in 2020 led to shortages of essential goods and paralysis of the healthcare system. Now, the events in Iran and Afghanistan indicate that Kyrgyzstan may face energy, banking, and food crises. Kyrgyzstan, being in a state of constant energy deficit, faces the problem: what will happen if the regional energy system of Central Asia collapses due to cyberattacks or sabotage in the event of a major war? Will the capacities of hydroelectric power stations be sufficient for the country to operate autonomously if electricity supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan cease?
The economy of Kyrgyzstan is now heavily dependent on cashless payments and remittances from migrants, making the situation with a banking blackout extremely alarming. In the event of a SWIFT shutdown or major server failures due to a lack of electricity, Visa and Elcart cards could become useless. Does the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan have a backup plan in case of a global internet shutdown or massive attacks on the banking sector? Is the country ready to return to cash circulation in the context of the som's devaluation? The issue of food security is also relevant: Kyrgyzstan is largely dependent on imports of wheat, sugar, and vegetable oil. The war in Iran and Afghanistan blocks southern transport corridors, while the closure of northern borders could leave food supplies in state reserves for only 2-3 months.
The events of March 2026 demonstrated that the world has become unpredictable. For Kyrgyzstan, this means the necessity of complete energy autonomy: without new capacities, such as small hydropower plants and solar stations, any disruption in the region could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. Nuclear power plants that are not dependent on climatic conditions are also necessary. Critical data and payment systems must be localized within the country. Food security should become the number one priority, as self-sufficiency in basic products is a matter of national defense, not just economics. Kyrgyzstan is still not ready for a "full blackout." The experience of COVID-19 taught survival in isolation, but a large-scale energy and financial blockade requires strategic decisions that need to be made as soon as possible. There is much to consider. By exploring even the most improbable scenarios, it is time to abandon the mindset based on the phrase "It can't be!"
In the film "World War Z" (2013), an important concept of the "Tenth Man" is presented, explained to the main character by Mossad chief Jurgen Warmbrunn. After Israel repeatedly found itself unprepared for unexpected threats, intelligence agencies implemented a rule to combat "groupthink." The essence is that if in a council of ten people, nine come to the same conclusion, the tenth must disagree. His task is to assume that the others are wrong and prepare for the most improbable scenario. Jurgen Warmbrunn said: "If nine of us, receiving the same information, come to the same conclusion, it is the duty of the tenth to disagree. No matter how unlikely it seems, he must look for evidence that the other nine are wrong." People generally do not believe that threats can become reality until they happen. It is very important for Kyrgyzstan to find that tenth person. In these turbulent times, he could be the one who leads to change.
