Moreover, the surprise is not about the resignations themselves, but about the fact that they did not happen earlier, during the first wave of changes when Tashiev was still in office.
However, a question arises: how to reconcile these personnel changes with the president's recent statement that he and Tashiev remained friends after his resignation? This phrase clearly contradicts what is happening in the personnel sphere.
The answer becomes clear if we assume that these mass changes are driven not just by distrust but by deeper transformations in the power structure.
Interconnection of the System and Personality
In recent years, Tashiev has played a significant role in Kyrgyz politics. Under his leadership, the GKNB significantly expanded its influence, going beyond its direct powers. The general became a key figure in matters of security, politics, economics, and personnel management, forming a network that included officials, deputies, and businessmen.In such a configuration, power began to transform from a purely state system into a network of personal dependencies. This was not necessarily a deliberate action on Tashiev's part; rather, it was a natural process.
At the same time, an opposite process began.
Every presidential system has a limit to the autonomy of the second center of power.
At the growth stage, such a concentration of powers can be effective, but it cannot continue indefinitely. After growth comes a time of stabilization, when a redistribution of influence is necessary to reduce risks associated with personal monopoly.
This is precisely what we are witnessing at the moment.
The system, based on a tandem, has reached its limit, and the process of returning to a more centralized model of governance has begun.
In simpler terms, the defenders of the duumvirate failed to deceive the nature of power: two heads in one pot cannot coexist.
Changes in the Management Model
It is important to note that it is not the composition of the elite that is changing, but the principles of access to governance. If previously the main factor was trust in specific individuals, now the emphasis is shifting to subordination to the presidential vertical. This is a transition from a tandem model to a centralized system.The difference, although subtle, is fundamental.
As for the resignations, they typically occur in waves.
The first wave affects the upper level and prominent symbols: the resignation of Tashiev himself, his deputies in the GKNB, the mayor of Bishkek, the speaker of the Jogorku Kenesh, and the mayor of Osh.
The second wave concerns the infrastructure of influence, including the resignation of deputies and figures such as Torobaev and Dosmambetov.
The third wave encompasses networks based on personal agreements and pertains to the level of "brother's friend" and similar individuals.
Prospects for Tashiev's Personnel
In this situation, three possible scenarios can be identified. The first can be called integration: some officials will be adapted and remain in the system. The authorities are not interested in a complete personnel overhaul, as it is costly and risky. The main condition is the reorientation of loyalty from personal to institutional.The second scenario concerns those whose identity is too closely intertwined with Tashiev. It will be difficult for them to remain in power, and they will likely have to leave their positions or move into business.
The third scenario suggests that rationally thinking supporters of Tashiev will recognize the impossibility of restoring the previous configuration and will exit the field. An example of this could be Nurlan Shakiev.
Despite the large-scale personnel changes, this does not represent a conflict in the traditional sense.
The absence of a public war indicates that this is not about a split, but about a redistribution of influence. This is not a fight to the death, but a correction of the balance.
Historically, the Kyrgyz political system has oscillated between personalism and attempts to build a stable vertical of power. At this moment, the pendulum is swinging towards the latter.
