Kyrgyzstan and China are entering a new stage of deepening their strategic partnership aimed at the comprehensive development of trade and economic relations. The main impetus for this was the state visit of President Sadyr Japarov to China in February 2025. During this visit, more than 20 bilateral agreements were signed. The focus of cooperation is on the qualitative renewal of logistics routes and the removal of barriers to mutual trade. As part of the SCO summit, which will take place in Bishkek in August 2026, a visit by the Chairman of China, Xi Jinping, is expected, marking an important milestone in the development of bilateral relations.
By the end of 2025, the trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and China had already reached a record level of $27.2 billion, which is 20% more than the previous year. These figures made Kyrgyzstan a leader in trade growth rates with China in Central Asia. In this context, setting a goal of $45 billion by 2030 appears to be a logical continuation of the current trend.
To determine how achievable this goal is and what conditions are necessary for its realization, we turned to the director of the "Regional Mining Center of Central Asia" and former advisor to the Minister of Economy of Kyrgyzstan, Ismail Aydarghazievich Dairov.
“Achieving a trade turnover of $45 billion between Kyrgyzstan and China is quite possible. I consulted with an expert in this field, and he supported my point of view. However, two key aspects must be considered.
First, the domestic market of Kyrgyzstan is not capable of consuming such volumes of goods on its own. I believe that the country will only be able to absorb about 10% of the stated amount.
Second, the potential of our re-export plays a crucial role. The geographical location of Kyrgyzstan allows it to be used as a transit corridor for delivering Chinese goods to other countries in the region. Considering this function, achieving the stated volume becomes quite realistic.
Moreover, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway could be an additional factor. If it is put into operation in 2028-2029, the trade turnover will not only reach the stated amount but may also exceed it.
It is also important to consider how the flow of goods is accounted for. For example, in the 2010s, Chinese customs recorded goods shipments to Kyrgyzstan worth about $11 billion, while our official reporting showed just over $1 billion. This discrepancy is explained by the fact that part of the goods passed outside the official statistics.
With the development of digitalization and control systems, such discrepancies are gradually decreasing. Thus, provided that trade transparency is maintained and logistics improve, achieving the stated indicators looks quite realistic,” noted Dairov.
