In the course of the study, scientists analyzed data from 120 years (1901-2020) and considered the occurrence of droughts as events in a global network. If a lack of precipitation began simultaneously in two remote regions, such droughts were considered "synchronized." The main barrier to the spread of droughts turned out to be ocean surface temperature patterns, particularly the El Niño phenomenon (ENSO). These cycles create diverse regional responses: when extreme conditions are recorded in Australia or South Africa, other places, on the contrary, experience an excess of moisture. The ocean acts as a kind of circuit breaker, preventing local disasters from turning into a global problem.
According to the results of the technical analysis, the precipitation deficit over the past decades has accounted for about two-thirds of the total intensity of droughts. The remaining part is related to temperature factors: due to rising atmospheric temperatures, evaporation sharply increases, which further depletes the soil. Although the impact of heat is becoming more noticeable in Europe and some parts of Asia, in major agricultural regions such as South America and Australia, the main trigger remains the lack of rainfall. Even with a moderate moisture deficit, the risks for agriculture become critical: the likelihood of crop failure for corn or soybeans under such conditions increases to 40-50%.
Scientists note that understanding the "tipping points" of droughts can help in forming a more adaptive system of international trade. Since different regions of the planet do not dry out simultaneously, surpluses of food from prosperous areas can mitigate market shocks. This allows climatology to be transformed from a theoretical science into a tool for stabilizing the global market, preventing local shortages from escalating into a global price crisis.
