In February of this year, global food prices rose for the first time in the last five months. This is confirmed by a new index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The main factor behind the increase was the rise in prices for wheat and vegetable oils, as well as certain types of meat, which offset the decline in prices for cheese and sugar.
The FAO index, which tracks international prices for key food commodities, reached a value of 125.3 points, which is 0.9% higher than the January figure, although it is still 1% lower compared to the previous year.
Price changes in key food categories
Cereals increased in price by an average of 1.1% in February. The rise in wheat prices is linked to reports of frosts in the USA and Europe, as well as ongoing disruptions in logistics in Russia and the Black Sea region. Corn prices also slightly increased, and the rice index rose by 0.4% due to stable demand for basmati and Japanese rice.Vegetable oils increased in price by 3.3%, reaching the highest level since June 2022. The rise in palm oil prices is due to high global demand and seasonal production declines in Southeast Asia. Soybean oil prices also rose amid expectations of new biofuel support measures in the USA, while canola oil became more expensive due to forecasts of increased imports from Canada. In contrast, sunflower oil slightly decreased in price due to increased export supplies from Argentina.
The cost of meat products rose by 0.8%. Lamb reached a record high price, and beef prices increased due to high demand from China and the USA. There was also a slight increase in prices for pork and poultry.
Dairy products decreased in price by 1.2%, mainly due to falling cheese prices. However, prices for skimmed and whole milk rose due to high demand in North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The price of butter increased for the first time since the record level of June 2025.
Prices for sugar fell by 4.1% over the month and by 27.3% compared to February 2025, which is linked to expectations of significant global supplies in the current season.
Forecasts for 2026: decrease in wheat planting
The FAO also presented preliminary forecasts for wheat production in 2026. Global production is expected to decrease by about 3% to around 810 million tons, while remaining above the average for the last five years.Farmers in the European Union, Russia, and the USA are reducing areas planted with winter wheat due to falling prices. At the same time, forecasts in India appear optimistic due to record plantings supported by government measures. Positive expectations are also observed in Pakistan and China.
