The regions of Central Asia have become the first platform for the implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, as well as a demonstration zone for high-quality cooperation within this program. Under the leadership of the heads of state, mechanisms for interaction in the "China-Central Asia" format are functioning successfully, leading to the progressive development of trade and economic ties.
Kubat Umurzakov, Doctor of Economic Sciences and former director of the Institute of Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation, emphasized in an interview with vb.kg that the successes of 2025 in trade and economics confirm both the resilience and the potential for further development of these relations. For the first time, China has become the main trading partner of all five countries in the region, highlighting the significance of this cooperation.
Kubat Sadybakasovich, can we say that trade is becoming mutually beneficial for all countries in our region?
- Over the past five years, from 2020 to 2025, trade turnover between our countries has increased more than threefold, with a growth of 12 percent in 2025 alone. It is important to note that this year, China has for the first time become the largest trading partner for all Central Asian countries, with its share in the total trade turnover of the region rising to 24 percent in 2024.
The main exports from China include mechanical and electrical equipment, as well as high-tech goods. China is actively increasing supplies of electronics, machinery, and new energy products, including electric vehicles and electrical equipment.
As for imports from Central Asia, China is not limited to just raw materials and energy resources (oil, gas, rare earth minerals) but is also starting to import a more diverse range of goods, including agricultural products. This indicates a balance and mutual benefit in trade. Imports from the region are growing even faster than exports, increasing the share of Central Asian products in the Chinese market.
What are the differences and similarities in the trade structures of the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) in relations with China? Which countries could become the main drivers of growth? How does regional economic integration affect trade with China?
- In the context of trade, each country in the region has its own characteristics. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stand out in terms of export volume.
According to Chinese customs data, Kazakhstan's exports to China from January to September 2025 amounted to approximately $13.5 billion, which is a 9.9 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. The main export goods from Kazakhstan include oil and petroleum products, copper ores, and natural gas.
Uzbekistan's exports to China have also significantly increased, reaching $13.1 billion from January to October 2025 (an increase of 28.4 percent compared to the same period in 2024). The main goods exported by Uzbekistan are natural gas, gold, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products.
Turkmenistan traditionally supplies gas and energy resources to China, which accounts for 62 percent of its exports, allowing the country to maintain a positive trade balance with China. In 2025, China imported Turkmen gas worth $8.4 billion.
Kyrgyzstan's exports to China include mineral ores, metals, and agricultural products. In 2024, the export volume from Kyrgyzstan increased to $2.04 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's figures.
What new features have emerged in cooperation between China and Central Asia in the field of production chains due to the "Belt and Road" initiative? What are the future prospects in the field of mineral production and processing?
- The growth of trade between Central Asia and China occurs against the backdrop of slow growth in global trade. The main driving force behind this growth is the deepening cooperation between China and Central Asia across multiple directions.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his speech at the Second "China-Central Asia" Summit (Astana, June 17, 2025), emphasized the importance of practical cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, and investment. The dynamic growth of trade over the past five years and the record figures of 2025 confirm a serious approach to implementing the stated intentions.
He also designated 2025 and 2026 as a time for high-quality development of cooperation with a focus on practical projects. One of the key factors for further trade growth is the implementation of investment projects under the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
At the Second Summit, an Action Plan for the high-quality implementation of this initiative was adopted, which includes investments in industry, modernization of production, and development of logistics infrastructure.
Among the significant investment projects, the development of a gas chemical complex in the Bukhara region of Uzbekistan stands out, with total investments of about $3.3 billion. This project involves the construction of a plant for processing natural gas into chemical products used in plastic production. Additionally, one of the major Chinese holdings is investing over $7 billion in a gas chemical complex in the Atyrau region for polyethylene production.
It is also worth mentioning the project for the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which will be approximately 500 km long. This route will become an important element of the transport infrastructure, providing access to the markets of Southeast and Western Asia, as well as the Middle East. It will significantly reduce the time and distance for cargo delivery, enhancing competitiveness in the international market.
Overall, the increase in trade volumes with China and the influx of investments into key sectors contribute to the economic growth of the countries in the region and the development of their infrastructure. However, for sustainable socio-economic growth, it is necessary to diversify the economy and ensure balanced development.
