Expectations of Russians Regarding Gasoline Prices in 2026
According to Mikhail Khachaturyan, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, by the end of 2025, a certain balance was achieved in the Russian fuel market, which was reflected in a slowdown in the rate of gasoline price increases.The expert noted that as a result of the introduced restrictions on gasoline exports and the moratorium on the cancellation of the damping mechanism, wholesale fuel prices decreased by an average of 5-5.5%, which positively affected retail prices.
- It is also worth considering the increase in gasoline supplies from other countries. However, this dynamic does not allow for sufficient margins for independent gas stations, leading to their closures. At the beginning of January 2026, excise taxes were increased, and ongoing inflation will contribute to rising wholesale and retail fuel prices.
It is possible that the current restrictions will remain in place for another six to nine months, which is quite logical given the need to support low fuel prices for agricultural producers during the sowing season.
- Thus, it can be expected that the current trend of stabilizing fuel prices, fluctuating in the range of 65-70 kopecks per liter depending on the region, will continue at least until mid-2026.
Factors Influencing Gasoline and Diesel Prices
The press service of the AutoSpecialCenter Group reported that the cost of fuel at Russian gas stations is likely to rise by the end of 2026, exceeding the expected inflation rate of 4%. At the beginning of the year, price stabilization is traditionally observed against the backdrop of declining seasonal demand.Key factors influencing gasoline prices:
- Changes in fiscal policy. As of January 1, 2026, VAT rates have been increased to 22% and fuel excise taxes indexed;
- The state of the oil refining industry. Accidents at oil refineries and difficulties with equipment supplies under sanctions create risks of fuel shortages in the domestic market, especially during peak seasons;
- The damping mechanism - subsidies to oil companies to compensate for the difference between domestic and export prices.
“One can expect a gradual increase in fuel prices at rates from 4-5% to 7-8% per year. This implies that by the end of the year, the average price of a liter of AI-95 may approach or even exceed 70 rubles, while AI-92 will remain in the range of 66-68 rubles per liter. Measures to curb price increases may include extending restrictions on fuel exports and adjusting damping payments to avoid a repeat of a large-scale fuel crisis,” Khachaturyan added.
Dmitry Matveev, CEO of the company "My Car Rental," spoke about other reasons affecting the rise in gasoline and diesel prices. For example, he noted that logistics plays an important role. Residents of oil-producing regions sometimes wonder why fuel is more expensive there than in other places.
- The reasons for this can be explained using the example of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, where there is no infrastructure for oil refining. The raw materials extracted there are sent for processing to another region and then returned, which increases transportation costs that are typically included in the final price. Additionally, there is low competition among fuel suppliers in the KMAO, which also affects pricing,” he concluded.
