Sources that spoke with Bloomberg journalists emphasize that modeling the economic consequences of a sharp rise in oil prices is conducted regularly, especially in times of instability, and should not be viewed as a direct forecast. This work is intended to prepare the administration for various possible scenarios.
Before the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed his concerns that the war could lead to rising oil prices. According to sources, department officials informed the White House of their concerns for several weeks.
White House Press Secretary Kush Desai noted that while the administration always evaluates different economic scenarios, it does not anticipate that oil prices will ever reach $200 a barrel. He added that Bessent was not "worried" about short-term fluctuations related to the operation "Epic Fury".
According to Bloomberg, even if oil prices rise to $170 a barrel, it could lead to increased inflation in the U.S. and Europe, as well as a slowdown in economic growth. One of the first noticeable effects in the U.S. was an increase in gasoline prices, which rose by 30%.
