According to calculations, the speed of the plasma cloud heading towards Earth is about 670 km/s. Its journey from the Sun to our planet will take just over 60 hours. Considering the time of the flare's formation, which occurred around 3 PM Moscow time, it is expected that the cloud will reach Earth on Thursday, March 19, 2026, between 4 and 6 AM.
The maximum intensity of the expected magnetic storm will range from G2 to G3, which is considered a high level. The probability of reaching a stronger value of G4 is only 1-3%, as the initial flare M2.8 was not powerful enough for that. It is forecasted that the storm will be relatively short, lasting about 10 hours, which is also related to the moderate strength of the initial event.
