Considering the upcoming integration of the fuel market within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, scheduled for January 1, 2027, experts discussed how this will affect gasoline prices in Kazakhstan.
Forecast by Rakhimbek Abdrakhmanov
Abdrakhmanov warns that citizens of Kazakhstan should expect a significant increase in fuel prices. According to him, integration will lead to a change in the current price balance with neighboring countries.
“Currently, the price of gasoline in Kazakhstan is about twice as low as in Russia and Kyrgyzstan. In the case of price alignment, we could see an increase of 70-90%. This will likely not happen instantly, but rather quickly, which will have a serious impact on the standard of living of Kazakhstani citizens,” he noted.
Taking into account that the price of the popular fuel AI-92 as of March 12 is 239 tenge, the possible scenarios are as follows:
- If increased by 70%, the price will reach 406 tenge per liter.
- If increased by 90% — 454 tenge per liter.
Forecast by Almas Chukin
Although the Ministry of Energy previously stated that price increases would occur gradually and without sharp jumps, economist Almas Chukin supports Abdrakhmanov's opinion. He believes that while the process will not be instantaneous, it will still be noticeable for consumers. In a conversation with Digital Business, he noted that market mechanisms will inevitably raise prices, striving for a level of free pricing.
“I do not know the exact parameters of price growth, but looking at the prices in neighboring countries, one can assume that this is the direction we will be moving in,” Chukin added.
He also cited Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as examples, where prices for AI-92 are around 385 and 489 tenge, respectively.
Chukin specifically noted that the comparison with Russia can be misleading, as fuel prices there are significantly lower due to hidden subsidies.
“The government compensates gasoline producers. A few years ago, they conducted a tax maneuver that switched them to world prices. To support the domestic market, they do this covertly,” Chukin explained.
In his view, if subsidies are taken into account, the real market price of fuel in Russia would be significantly higher.
“To the price indicated at gas stations in Russia, you need to add the subsidies that refineries receive. Therefore, if we consider market data, our price should be higher than in Russia. The prices in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are more realistic,” the economist concluded.
Thus, according to Almas Chukin, the price of gasoline in Kazakhstan will settle in the range of about 400 tenge per liter.
