Experts express concern: the "salty kingdoms" of the Middle East are under threat as vulnerable oil and desalination plants become targets of attacks.
Over the past weekend, a "black rain" fell over Iran as a result of airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel on oil facilities, according to Euronews.
According to Gabriel da Silva, an associate professor of chemical engineering at the University of Melbourne, the clouds of pollutants likely contain hydrocarbons, PM2.5 particles, and carcinogenic components, in addition to sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. Heavy metals and inorganic compounds resulting from explosions may also be present.
On the ground, people report difficulty breathing and burning sensations in their eyes and throat. However, in the long term, health damage may manifest as cancer, complications during childbirth, as well as neurological and cardiovascular diseases. Pollutants settling on buildings and entering water bodies can remain there for a long time even after fires are extinguished, threatening the already overburdened marine ecosystem.
Vulnerability of Desalination Plants in the Middle East
Pollution is just one of many threats to the water supply of Iran and its neighbors. Attacks on desalination plants, which produce fresh water from seawater, are becoming critically important as they supply water to major cities in the region, making them vulnerable during conflicts.
"Everyone sees oil powers in Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries. But I call them kingdoms of salty water," claims Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah. "These are artificially created water superpowers, operating on fossil fuels. This is both an achievement of the 20th century and a particular vulnerability."
Iran claims that the U.S. has created a "precedent" after a strike damaged an Iranian desalination plant and led to a reduction in water supply to 30 villages.
Sunday was marked by accusations against Iran for damaging a desalination plant in Bahrain. Since many desalination facilities in the Gulf countries are integrated with power plants and function as cogeneration facilities, attacks on energy infrastructure can also hinder the production of fresh water.
"A serious water crisis" may be imminent
Although Iran is less dependent on desalination compared to its neighbors, as it receives most of its water from rivers, reservoirs, and underground sources, these have been depleted due to five years of drought.
The country is trying to expand its desalination capabilities along the southern coast and pump water inland, but infrastructure limitations, high energy costs, and international sanctions significantly hinder this process.
"Last summer, they were already discussing the possibility of evacuating the capital," notes Ed Callenane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence. "I can't even imagine what this summer will be like amid prolonged shelling, economic disaster, and a serious water crisis."
Oil Supply Issues and Renewable Energy
Due to destroyed oil refineries and disrupted shipping routes, oil-dependent economies are experiencing paralysis. Experience shows that the first reaction is usually a switch to even more polluting fuels.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, some European countries returned to coal, while others began paying high prices for American liquefied natural gas delivered across the Atlantic.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, through which 20% of the world's oil trade passes, forces tankers to navigate around Africa, leading to increased emissions from shipping and raising the risk of oil spills on alternative routes.
The closure of the strait also threatens food supplies. About one-third of the world's fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and with rising oil prices, the costs of agricultural production and food transportation are also increasing.
Nevertheless, the crisis underscores the need for local food and energy independence.
"Renewable energy has never been so cheap, accessible, and scalable," says UN Secretary-General António Guterres. "Clean energy resources cannot be blocked or weaponized."
Climate Consequences of the Conflict
Whatever the future energy solutions of countries may be, the war itself will lead to a sharp increase in emissions.
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, now in its fourth year, is estimated to have caused the emission of a staggering 311 million tons of CO2 equivalent.
Reports indicate that even before the conflict began, Iran's armed forces contributed 5.5 percent (source in English) of all annual greenhouse gas emissions on the planet—more than any other country except China, the U.S., and India.
Neta Crawford, co-founder of the Costs of War project (source in English) at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, emphasizes that combat aircraft, which consume vast amounts of fuel and emit carbon dioxide and other pollutants, are just one example.
"The impact of war on emissions will far exceed any gradual reductions that may be achieved through efforts to transition to green technologies," she adds.
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