A Corridor of Certainty in an Uncertain World. India and the EU Agree on Free Trade

Наталья Маркова World
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The Corridor of Certainty in an Uncertain World. India and the EU Agree on Free Trade

At the meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on January 27, 2026, European Council President António Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were spotted. Photo by Reuters / Altaf Hussain.
The free trade agreement between India and the EU is seen as one of the most significant steps in economic and strategic partnership. This was reported by the publication Geopolitico.

Preparations for the visit of high-ranking EU representatives to India in honor of Republic Day and the upcoming India-EU summit create a positive political climate for successful negotiations. The anticipated comprehensive trade agreement could become the largest in India's history and serve as an important signal of changes in global trade relations amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions.

The significance of this agreement goes beyond merely increasing trade volumes. It implies strategic changes in global value chains, deepening technological cooperation, and creating more sustainable eco-friendly development models. This, in turn, strengthens the economic security of both parties and minimizes their vulnerability to external shocks.

A Long Path to Agreement

The negotiations to establish the foundations of cooperation between India and the EU began over ten years ago and covered numerous aspects, including trade in goods and services, investments, intellectual property protection, and sustainable development.

Disagreements over tariffs, regulatory standards, professional mobility, and environmental requirements previously led to a suspension of dialogue. The resumption of negotiations reflects a new level of strategic understanding between the parties amid a rapidly changing global context. Since then, the discussion process has become more dynamic.

Economic Scale and Significance

The upcoming agreement will be one of the largest in the world. Despite the complementarity of the economies of India and the EU, bilateral trade has long remained below its potential. The agreement is expected to give it a new impetus precisely at a time when global trade is facing serious challenges.

Indian manufacturers and exporters will benefit in labor-intensive and manufacturing sectors, including textiles, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and food processing. For the EU, expanding access to the Indian market will open new opportunities in automotive, high-tech, green technologies, as well as in agro-industrial production and professional services.

Structure and Potential of Bilateral Trade

The European Union is one of India's key trading partners. Exports from India to the EU are characterized by a high level of diversification and include value-added products such as energy carriers, industrial equipment, chemicals, and consumer goods.

Mutual trade covers a wide range of sectors: from machinery and electronics to pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, automotive, aerospace components, and textiles. The concentration of trade on a limited number of items ensures stability and scale in bilateral economic relations.

Imports from the EU are also characterized by high technological intensity. They include capital goods, precision machinery, and equipment for industry and infrastructure, as well as products from the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors. This import structure is critically important for modernizing the Indian economy and developing its manufacturing potential.

However, India's share in the EU's overall foreign trade remains relatively small, highlighting significant potential for expanding its presence in European markets. A comprehensive agreement could accelerate this process by improving access conditions and enhancing competitiveness, deepening India's integration into European value chains.

Services, Mobility, and Investments

The services sector is becoming increasingly important in India-EU relations. The upcoming agreement will give this direction strategic significance. Improving access for Indian IT, digital, financial, and professional services to the European market, as well as creating mobility mechanisms for skilled professionals, can simultaneously support India's economic growth and help Europe cope with labor shortages.

Investment cooperation is also a key element of this partnership. European companies are already actively participating in India's economy, while Indian investments in the EU are gradually increasing. Enhancing regulatory transparency and reliable dispute resolution mechanisms within the agreement should stimulate more active participation of European businesses in Indian sectors such as industry, innovation, renewable energy, and electric mobility.

Strategic and Geopolitical Significance

The agreement is significant not only in an economic context. It reflects the broader picture of India-EU relations, including cooperation in security, defense, technology, and supply chain resilience. The planned security and defense partnership could strengthen cooperation at sea and stimulate the involvement of Indian companies in European defense initiatives.

Amid the emerging bloc logic in global politics, the agreement demonstrates the commitment of both parties to open, rules-based, and multipolar approaches. It also strengthens India's image as a reliable and predictable economic partner at a time when many countries are reassessing their dependence on a limited number of markets and suppliers.

Changing India's Trade Strategy

For India, this agreement symbolizes a shift from a cautious and fragmented approach to a more confident and strategically oriented trade policy. Combined with other recent agreements, it reflects a growing willingness to use trade as a tool for economic growth, job creation, and technological modernization. Expanding access to one of the richest markets in the world and protecting key national interests indicate a new level of maturity in India's trade strategy.

Conclusion

The free trade agreement between India and the EU is becoming a strategic milestone that goes far beyond merely reducing trade barriers. In the context of global uncertainty and rising protectionism, it establishes a stable and predictable corridor of cooperation between two major democratic economies. This agreement opens new opportunities for India in the European market, enhances the competitiveness of its exports, promotes technology transfer and the development of green partnerships, as well as attracting quality investments from Europe. Strategically, it supports the diversification of supply chains and strengthens a rules-based multipolar world order. For India, it is a step towards a more active and confident role in the international economy, and for the EU, it is an opportunity to find a reliable long-term partner in one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
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