Bloomberg: Kazakhstan's oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium decreased by 45%

This month, the volume of CPC Blend shipments is estimated by traders to be only 800-900 thousand barrels per day, which is 45% less than expected in mid-December.

Out of 45 planned batches, at least 21 have been canceled. This shortfall has already contributed to an increase in oil prices: Kazakh oil is trading at a premium for the first time in a year, with recent deals recorded at a markup of $1.2 per barrel compared to the Dated Brent benchmark.

Supply issues are due to ongoing disruptions at the terminal. In recent weeks, oil shipments have been suspended several times due to adverse weather conditions, which has also delayed the commissioning of the second offshore loading dock after its maintenance. Additionally, at the end of November, another dock was damaged by Ukrainian drones. Astana needs at least two functioning CPC docks to maintain stable export volumes.

Sources report that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is currently not accepting oil from producers again, as the tanks are full.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is responsible for about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, including oil from major companies such as Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Shell. Kazakhstan as a whole produces about 1.8 million barrels per day. In the absence of full operation of the CPC, the republic will be able to export only half of this volume via alternative routes, which may lead to a reduction in production at fields in the event of a prolonged downtime.