Analysis of open sources, including data from the Ministry of Energy, allows for the reconstruction of information about the state of the reservoir on April 1 for the period from 2006 to 2013, as well as partial data for 2014 and 2015.
Photo from the internet
In 2013, data on the state of the Toktogul HPP was published, covering the period from 2006 to 2013.
According to this information, the volume of water on April 1 in different years was as follows:
- 2006 — 14.13 billion cubic meters;
- 2007 — 13.76 billion cubic meters;
- 2008 — 6.56 billion cubic meters;
- 2009 — 6.42 billion cubic meters;
- 2010 — 11.82 billion cubic meters;
- 2011 — 15.4 billion cubic meters;
- 2012 — 14.24 billion cubic meters;
- 2013 — 13.77 billion cubic meters.
Thus, the minimum for the specified period was observed in 2009 — 6.42 billion cubic meters, coinciding with the period of the energy crisis and strict electricity savings.
The maximum level for 2006-2013 was recorded in 2011 — 15.4 billion cubic meters. This was achieved after good snowfall and significant water inflow, which allowed for successful management during the autumn-winter period.
It is important to note that all the indicated values already account for the "dead storage" level, which is approximately 5.5 billion cubic meters. In crisis years (2008-2009), the actual maneuverable water reserve was only about 1-1.1 billion cubic meters.
In good years (2011-2013), the water reserve above the "dead storage" reached 9-10 billion cubic meters.
Data from the State Agency for Regulation of the Fuel and Energy Complex, announced in 2015, showed that on April 1, the water level was 6.4 billion cubic meters. This figure is close to the anti-record of 2009 and significantly lower than the average long-term indicators, which are about 12 billion cubic meters on the same date.
Officials often refer to this value in the context of comparing the current situation with the past energy crisis.
According to current hydraulic engineering standards, the "dead storage" for the Toktogul Reservoir is approximately 5.5 billion cubic meters. When this level is reached:
- the HPP units cannot operate in normal mode;
- continuing to discharge water threatens equipment damage and the safety of the dam;
- the hydroscheme loses the ability to generate electricity normally and switches to a mode of strict limitation.
Therefore, a water volume on April 1 close to 6-6.5 billion cubic meters represents a risk zone, which could lead to a critical level by the beginning of the autumn-winter period.
In recent years, the water level in the Toktogul Reservoir has fluctuated significantly: in 2020, reserves were at 12-14 billion cubic meters, in 2021 they decreased to 8.7-9 billion cubic meters, and in 2022-2023 they were maintained at 9-10 billion cubic meters.
The most critical year was 2024, when the water volume fell to 6.5 billion cubic meters, close to the "dead storage" level.
Last year, the situation improved, and the water level rose to 8.4-8.7 billion cubic meters by early April.
As of May 15, 2025, data on water reserves in the Toktogul Reservoir became unavailable to the public, and they stopped being published on the website of the Electric Stations OJSC.
Toktogul Reservoir
This is a key link in the Naryn cascade, commissioned in 1975, playing an important role in the energy security of Kyrgyzstan. Over half a century of observations, the water level in the reservoir has reached critically low values several times, especially in 2008 and 2015, leading to electricity shortages and the introduction of restrictions.
