According to the Financial Times, after February 5, not only will quantitative limits cease to be in effect, but all control mechanisms, including mutual inspections and regular data exchanges, will also come to an end. This will result in no active agreements in the field of strategic weapons between the two largest nuclear powers.
James Acton, co-chair of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment, claims that the world is entering a new era of arms racing. He also noted that the likelihood of reaching a new arms limitation agreement in the coming years is extremely low.
Rose Gottemoeller, who previously served as the chief US negotiator for START III, pointed out that President Vladimir Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance with the treaty's terms cannot serve as a full substitute for a legally binding mechanism. According to her, if Russia increases its arsenals, it could more quickly ramp up the number of warheads on active carriers, putting the US in a less advantageous position.
Experts emphasize that the expiration of START III will not lead to an immediate increase in nuclear arsenals.
However, the absence of legal frameworks and transparency creates risks of strategic miscalculations and weakens the global non-proliferation regime.
START III was signed in 2010 for a period of ten years and was extended until February 5, 2026. It limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 and included a system of mutual inspections and notifications. Upon its expiration, these mechanisms will cease to exist.
