According to data from the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, the ruble's exchange rate has slightly decreased in recent weeks and has nearly equalized with the national currency.
This is related to the fact that low oil prices were recorded in January and February, and the effect of this reduction manifests with a two-month delay.
Elvira Nabiullina, the chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia, https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/28183861/thumbnail[/img]" target="_blank">stated on March 20: "The decline in the ruble's exchange rate in March is caused by a combination of two factors. The first is the low oil prices at the beginning of the year, and the delay of this influence on the domestic market is two months. We are now seeing the consequences of this." Even considering the potential rise in oil prices (Urals and Brent), the effect of the price drop in January and February manifested specifically in March.
The decrease in the exchange rate occurred smoothly and in a controlled manner, without sharp fluctuations. The state is interested in a weaker ruble, as this contributes to an increase in budget revenues in rubles, and it controls this process.
Why is the ruble depreciating in Kyrgyzstan?
The current situation reflects the state of the Russian market. The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan relies on market data to establish official rates, while banks and exchange offices depend on quotes from the Moscow interbank market.However, there are additional factors. The volume of remittances from labor migrants in Russia has a significant impact: when the ruble loses value on the international stage, migrants receive fewer soms for their rubles, which reduces the demand for the ruble in Kyrgyzstan.
Previously, the financial regulator noted that there is a slowdown in price growth for essential goods in global food markets; however, inflation in the countries with which Kyrgyzstan actively trades remains high. Given the significant share of imports in the consumer basket, domestic prices remain sensitive to changes in the external market.
To stabilize the exchange rate and prices, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan raised the discount rate to 12% in February.
In the event of threats to price stability, the National Bank reserves the right to adjust its monetary policy. The next determination of the discount rate is expected at the end of April.
Nevertheless, the financial regulator conducts daily monitoring of the exchange rate.
In Russia itself, there is an opinion that the ruble will begin to strengthen in the near future, which is related to problems with oil supplies from the Middle East.
