The dynamics of the conflict in the Middle East continue to escalate, and its consequences are already affecting countries far beyond the region. Political scientist and head of the laboratory "Center for Regional Comparative Studies 'Russia – Central Asia'" Denis Borisov commented on the impact of this situation on Central Asia in an interview for "VES 24".
The failure of the US and Israeli blitzkrieg
At first glance, it may seem that events in the Middle East are happening far from us; however, with each passing day, the geography of the conflict is expanding. The escalation of the situation, including attacks on Caspian infrastructure, raises doubts about the security of regions such as the South Caucasus and Central Asia. As Borisov noted, "the American-Israeli blitzkrieg has predictably failed," and now the conflict is touching new areas.
If earlier hostilities were concentrated in Israel and Palestine, now they encompass facilities located at a significant distance from the usual "hot spots." The Caspian oil and energy infrastructure is becoming part of a complex system linked to the economic interests of many countries.
Vulnerability of logistics routes
Borisov pays special attention to transportation aspects. According to him, the current situation radically changes plans for the development of Eurasian logistics routes.
Now, as the northern part of the "North-South" corridor faces threats, key nodes ensuring connectivity with the Caspian Sea are under attack. This affects the interests of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan. Previously, Iranian Caspian infrastructure played an important role not only within the "North-South" route but also for "East-West," linking Central Asia with external markets.
For Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, this was one of the main channels for accessing international markets and diversifying logistics.
Risks for Eurasian logistics
In the expert's opinion, the ongoing events are already beginning to have a significant impact on transport flows. "The escalation complicates Eurasian logistics as a whole, and if the attacks continue, this will lead to a revision of plans for the development of trans-Caspian logistics between the East and the West," he warns.
The key phrase here is "if the attacks continue." Given the current dynamics, one can expect that the situation may change in the shortest possible time. With systematic strikes on Caspian ports, logistics companies will be forced to seek alternative routes, which will inevitably lead to increased costs and delays in deliveries.
A new strategy for the US-Israeli coalition
Borisov also emphasizes that the failure of the blitzkrieg forces the US and Israel to reconsider their strategies. "The beginning of attacks on the northern regions of Iran indicates a shift to a protracted confrontation and an infrastructure war," he says.
This change is related not only to the expansion of the conflict's geography but also to an attempt to deprive Iran of strategic logistical ties with the outside world, including Russia and China. Northern routes are becoming critically important for the Iranian economy, and their blockage could significantly weaken Tehran.
Humanitarian aid as a trigger for attacks
Interestingly, recent events related to humanitarian supplies may also play a role as a catalyst for attacks. Borisov notes that large-scale humanitarian aid deliveries, particularly from Tajikistan, could have signaled an expansion of the geography of attacks on Iran.
In the current conditions, even humanitarian supplies are perceived as support for one side of the conflict, highlighting the interconnection between logistical channels and military actions.
Conclusions
Based on Borisov's analysis, several key conclusions can be drawn:
First, the conflict in the Middle East is extending beyond its region and is beginning to directly affect the Caspian region, creating risks for the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Second, not only military facilities are under threat, but also civilian infrastructure that is critically important for international logistics corridors.
Third, the US-Israeli coalition is shifting to a strategy of protracted warfare, aimed at depriving Iran of logistical ties with other states.
The dynamics of further events will depend on how systematic the attacks on Caspian infrastructure will be. If they continue, plans for the development of trans-Caspian logistics may be revised, forcing countries in the region to adapt to new realities where logistics acquire military and strategic significance.
