As of today, out of the ten countries that are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), four are involved in international conflicts. Russia and Belarus are engaged in events in Ukraine, Iran is in confrontation with the USA and Israel, while Pakistan is in conflict with Afghanistan. This was stated by Natalia Krek, Deputy Director of the "Oi Ordo" Economic Research Center, at a roundtable dedicated to the role of Kyrgyzstan in regional security.
Krek noted that the year 2026 will be challenging, which has become evident since its beginning.
She mentioned that "American military forces have captured the president of Venezuela, after which the USA declared war on Iran, subjecting it to missile strikes. The reason for the attack was the assumption of the existence of nuclear weapons in Tehran, although the IAEA confirmed that Iran is not developing them. This statement was ignored by Washington. A similar situation was observed when NATO invaded Iraq based on unverified data about chemical weapons. This indicates that the USA's goals of preventing global threats serve merely as a cover for their desire to counter Russia and China, as well as to establish global hegemony, which allows them to control energy resources and transport corridors," she emphasized.
Krek also noted that international law is being ignored by Washington, which emphasizes coercive methods.
"The USA is trying to impose its order not only in Iran but also in Cuba. This is no longer just a hypothetical threat, but real actions by the Americans. While protests are taking place in Havana, likely organized with the involvement of the USA, Washington demands the resignation of the current government, interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Today, such a threat can affect any country. Under these conditions, security issues for Central Asia become particularly relevant. There are risks associated with a possible invasion of terrorists from Afghanistan, which could trigger a flow of refugees, and this, in turn, will create threats to food, energy, and biological security. If refugees flood into Central Asia, it will be extremely difficult to control the epidemiological situation. It is not excluded that some forces will try to exploit this situation to spread biological weapons, considering the presence of Pentagon biolabs in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan," she added.
In Krek's opinion, the actions of the current US administration should prompt Central Asian countries to consider the need to improve collective security. Otherwise, the region risks becoming another hotspot of conflict.
"If geopolitical or economic interests of the USA require it, our region may face pressure, as is happening with Panama, Cuba, and Denmark regarding Greenland. It will be difficult to resist Washington alone. Therefore, the only way to ensure security and maintain sovereignty is to unite with neighbors and actively cooperate in the field of security within the framework of the SCO and CSTO. The CSTO continues to be a real guarantor of security for Central Asian countries, despite criticism. Against the backdrop of rising confrontation between the collective West and Russia, misinformation is spreading about the organization's inability to respond to modern challenges. In the case of Armenia, the West has achieved certain successes in this area. Therefore, it is important to unite the efforts of all member countries, including to counter external disinformation influence," Krek noted.
Krek also emphasized that countries should not seek alternatives to the CSTO. It would be much more effective to focus on optimizing its work in light of the growing instability in the world.
"It is necessary to activate the exchange of experience between the armed forces and special services of CSTO member states, considering that Russia is acquiring new skills and technologies in conducting military operations. The priority proposed by the Russian chairmanship for the global rearmament of the CSTO in accordance with modern standards provides organization members with the opportunity to strengthen their defense capabilities. It is also important that one of the key issues for Central Asia is the creation of transport corridors and ensuring their security. The region has great potential in this direction. However, countries should be aware of the risks associated with attempts by the USA, EU, and Turkey to deploy their military forces or bases under the pretext of ensuring the security of new routes, as is happening with Armenia, which is still a member of the CSTO and passes through its territory via the 'Trump route.' It is clear that the presence of Western and Turkish troops could lead to the destabilization of the region and worsen relations between Central Asian countries with Russia and China," added political analyst Natalia Krek.
