In an exclusive interview with the publication "VES24," Arthur Suleimanov stated that the new development of the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran has become evident.
The conflict between the US and Israel with Iran has entered a new stage, which, according to the expert, has exacerbated the current crisis in global energy supplies, affecting the interests of not only regional but also non-regional players.
What changes have occurred?
The situation has radically changed: the area of hostilities has expanded, and attacks on key energy hubs have intensified. Strikes are now directed not only at military facilities but also at energy and trade-logistics infrastructure. In particular, Israel and the US have attacked Iranian fields in South Pars and the largest port of Bandar-e Anzali on the Caspian Sea.
Iran, for its part, has learned to respond effectively to threats from the US and Israel, targeting the most vulnerable military and economically significant facilities. As a result, strikes have been carried out on the LNG center in Qatar, as well as on oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that work with American corporations.
On March 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the attacks on energy facilities in the Middle Eastern countries were not planned in advance and were a response to threats to Iran's security.
The conflict affects not only the countries of the Persian Gulf but also energy facilities in Turkey. On March 4, a missile was intercepted over Gaziantep, and on March 8, another missile entered Turkish airspace but was also shot down. On March 13, sirens went off at the Incirlik base, and it remains unclear who is behind these attacks.
The US openly declares its intention to control the Strait of Hormuz, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass. In this regard, President D. Trump threatens to deploy additional troops to the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz and is developing a new legal regime that will come into effect after the conflict ends, planning to cooperate with Oman on this issue.
How long did Washington plan to engage in such a military campaign?
According to assumptions, D. Trump did not expect to "get bogged down" in a prolonged war with Iran. Military actions will entail significant financial costs for the US, which, in turn, may negatively impact Trump's political career. He insisted on reducing military expenditures and opposed military involvement in conflicts; however, now the US is dropping billions of dollars in bombs on Iran and discussing the possibility of a ground operation.
On the other hand, Iran continues to resist, demonstrating confidence in its military-political resilience and readiness to withstand as many resources as necessary.
The most likely outcome, according to the expert, is Trump's declaration of victory for the US over Iran and a shift to issues concerning Cuba. Although such a decision is unlikely to be taken seriously by the international community, Trump has few options left to exit the current situation.
From an energy perspective, the US, as usual, will try to extract the maximum from the impending global energy crisis.
